Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/19: Can Lucas Giolito Stay Hot vs. Cubs?
Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 19 with his model below and highlights Phillies-Nationals (1:05 p.m. ET) and Indians-Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Logan Allen had a tremendous MLB debut on Tuesday, pitching seven shutout innings and getting big whiffs at his plus-changeup:
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) June 19, 2019
He even got his first major-league hit, too, and scored the go-ahead run in the bottom of the fifth inning:
SAVE THAT ⚾️!
— FOX Sports San Diego (@FOXSportsSD) June 19, 2019
Yes, that’s professional wrestler John Cena clapping after the hit. Why?
Cena met Allen a few years ago and bet the kid $1 that he wouldn’t make it to the big leagues:
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) June 18, 2019
Allen won the game, and the bet:
Unbelievable night. One I truly will not forget. Thank you to everyone that reached out. @JohnCena you owe me a 💵. Let’s Go Padres!
— Logan Allen (@Logan__Allen) June 19, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 4-2 against full-game moneylines and 3-3-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 2-4-1, and I finished down 0.72 units for the day. It was an overall negative day in terms of Closing Line Value (CLV).
I was down only a penny overall, but the Rays F5 and full-game moneylines both moved away from me, by 17 and 22 cents, respectively.
MLB Betting Model for Wednesday, June 19
Today, the model recommends four full-game moneylines and one moneyline for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Rays as an F5 play.
I’ll take the Phillies in the first game of their doubleheader on the moneyline.
On Tuesday I explained why I wanted to fade Patrick Corbin. That case still holds, and I actually show Zach Eflin as a better pitcher at present than Jake Arrieta.
I show the Rangers as slight home favorites over Cleveland and will gladly take them again at plus-money.
I’m a bit hesitant to make those other plays on the Rays and White Sox, as they each seem like potential traps.
The Yankees seem to have a good read on Tampa Bay’s bullpen, as the Bronx Bombers have consistently come back from deficits in the fifth inning or later against their divisional rival.
While 60% of the moneyline tickets are backing Blake Snell and the Rays on Wednesday, 63% of the cash is behind the Bombers, driving the Tampa Bay moneyline down from as high as -128 to -110.
The White Sox look like extremely public underdogs today, taking 60% of the moneyline tickets and 70% of the cash for a matchup against their crosstown rivals.
Thanks to my colleague Josh Appelbaum, I’ve been made aware of the fact that fading these public underdogs has been extremely profitable in 2019.
Favorites taking between 1% and 49% of moneyline tickets have gone 98-63 (+$1,624, 10% ROI) this season.
Lucas Giolito has been the most profitable pitcher in baseball this season on the moneyline (11-2, +$1,060, 81.5% ROI) thanks to his finally realizing the potential that once ranked him as baseball’s top pitching prospect.
Giolito has already thrown 321 major league innings at the age of 24, and prior to 2019, he looked pretty hopeless.
In 173 innings in 2018, Giolito posted a 5.56 FIP, striking out 6.5 batters per nine innings and walking more than 4.5, while allowing 1.4 home runs per game. He posted a strikeout minus walk rate of 4.5%.
In 2019, his K-BB% is 22.0%, 12th in MLB (just behind Walker Buehler). His first-pitch strike rate is up from 58% career to 63%, and his swinging strike rate is up from 9.7% career to 13.9%,
Part of the success is the result of a velocity increase. Giolito’s fastball is up two ticks, from 92.8 mph in 2018 to 94.7 mph this season. The spin on his fastball has also increased, placing it in average spin territory instead of well below average.
The fastball has a pitch value of +11 in 2019 after showing a value of -13.5 in 2018. That’s also partially because Giolito eliminated his sinker (20% usage in 2018) and now throws only four-seam fastballs.
The most dominant pitch in his arsenal has been his changeup, which has a total value of +12 but a weighted value of +4.05, the third-best changeup in baseball this season on a per pitch basis.
Lucas Giolito, Filthy 81mph Changeup. 😷
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 19, 2019
He’s also throwing it 9% more frequently (up to 24.3%) than he did in 2018.
Giolito has also refocused his arsenal based upon hitter handedness. He now goes primarily fastball-changeup to lefties and fastball-slider to righties.
This is the optimal approach for him as a pitcher. I’m just uncertain whether it’s optimal to back him again today as a public underdog.
Bets (So Far) for June 19
- Philadelphia Phillies (+155) Game Moneyline (Game 1)
- Texas Rangers (+109) Game Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/19
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.