Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, May 19.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Tuesday, May 19
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- Reds vs Phillies F5 Under 4.5 Runs -125 (DraftKings/FanDuel, Play to -130)
- New York Mets Moneyline -140 (Bet365, Play to -145)
- Los Angeles Dodgers -0.5 F5 -120 (Bet365, Play to -125)
Reds vs Phillies Picks
Whether Rob Thomson remained at the helm or not, a somewhat of a bounce-back from the Phillies relative to their horrific start was always likely.
With that said, it was hard to expect things could turn around as significantly as they have, and thanks to a 16-4 run under Don Mattingly, the Phillies are only three games back of a Wild Card spot entering Tuesday's matchup.
Jesus Luzardo offers another reason the Phillies could continue to be a more formidable side the rest of the way. Luzardo proved to be a savvy pickup for Philadelphia last season as he pitched to an ERA of 3.92 with strong underlying results, and though he holds an ugly 5.07 ERA, the underlying metrics suggest he is due to offer significantly better results moving forward.
Luzardo holds an xFIP of 2.55 and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 22.5%. He holds a BABIP of .366, despite ranking in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate. His Stuff+ rating is up year-over-year, as are his chase and whiff rates.
In the month of May, the Phillies hold a wRC+ of 102 and have hit to a wRC+ of 86 versus righties. The offense has been much better, but the turnaround under Mattingly still has more to do with the staff pitching to an ERA of 2.97 and improved results in closely contested games.
Chase Burns of the Reds has lived up to the hype this season, pitching to a 1.87 ERA and 2.97 xERA across 53 innings. His electric arsenal grades out quite well (111 Stuff+), and he's struck out 26.6% of batters faced this season.
There seems to be a good chance we see somewhat of a pitcher's duel Tuesday, and at -125, there looks to be value backing the first five innings to feature under 4.5 total runs.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 -125 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Mets vs Nationals Picks
Similarly to the rival Phillies, the Mets have also started to live up to expectations in playing to a record of 11-5 throughout the month of May. They still hold a modest wRC+ of 98 in that span but hold the fifth-lowest strikeout rate and rank eighth in hard-hit rate.
New York is still without some key bats and doesn't look entirely convincing, but it will have a significant pitching edge with Nolan McLean set to face Foster Griffin.
McLean has pitched to an xERA of 2.76 and an xFIP of 2.77 across 52 1/3 innings this season. He holds a Pitching+ rating of 114 and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 24.1%. The Nationals' offense ranks first in wRC+ versus lefties but has been a league-average unit versus righties.
The Nationals have played a ton of high-scoring games this year, and the struggles of their bullpen have been a key reason why. Their relief staff has pitched to an ERA of 5.01, while the Mets unit has been roughly as strong as expected in pitching to an ERA of 3.40.
Griffin has achieved success where it counts thus far, but his stuff does not grade out overly well, and he's allowed an average amount of hard contact while managing a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 14.6%.
Pick: New York Mets Moneyline -140 (Bet365, Play to -145)
Dodgers vs Padres Picks
Emmet Sheehan has trended towards much better form of late, as over his last five starts he's pitched to an ERA of 3.38, with an xERA of 2.89 and an xFIP of 2.81.
He's allowed an xBA of .216 in that span and struck out 11.81 batters per nine innings. He was razor-sharp in his most recent performance versus the Giants and was unlucky to even allow two earned runs, with the scorer making a debatable decision on some horrid fielding from Teoscar Hernandez that led to a two-run inside-the-park homer for Jung Hoo Lee.
Griffin Canning has struggled to an ERA of 10.64 across his first three starts of the year but appears likely to trend towards more average results moving forward based on last season's work and his current underlying results.
The Dodgers have been the best offence in the league versus right-handed pitching, though, and he's clearly at best in a tier below Sheehan.
At -120, there looks to be value in backing the Dodgers to win the first five innings (three-way line/-0.5).
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers F5 -0.5 -120 (Bet365, Play to -125)
Nick Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, May 19
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Reds vs Phillies F5 Under 4.5 Runs -125 (DraftKings/FanDuel, Play to -130)
- New York Mets Moneyline -140 (Bet365, Play to -145)
- Los Angeles Dodgers -0.5 F5 -120 (Bet365, Play to -125)
