Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, May 26.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Tuesday, May 26
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- Chicago Cubs ML (+115, DraftKings | Play to +110)
- Marlins vs Blue Jays Under 8 (-120, bet365 | Play to -130)
- Cam Schlittler to Record a Win (-105, bet365 | Play to -110)
Cubs vs Pirates Picks
On first glance, this one is pretty damn ugly.
The Cubs will lean on Jordan Wicks, who is making his first start of the season, to try to snap a nine-game losing streak. Wicks posted an ERA of 6.28 last season, but his arsenal graded out extremely well, and his 3.98 xERA and 3.25 xFIP suggest that over a larger sample, he would have stabilized significantly.
Chicago's bullpen has been roughly as strong as expected entering the season and offers a fairly considerable edge in this matchup, which is particularly relevant given that Wicks will likely only be expected to work twice through the order.
The Cubs' offense has been anemic of late and is on a historically bad run with runners in scoring position. For those who have paid attention to this skid on a game-by-game basis, it will come as no surprise that they rank last with a BABIP of .230 over the past 14 days.
The loss of Kyle Tucker hurts, but the Cubs still rank 12th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season, after ranking seventh in wRC+ versus righties in 2025. There are a lot of proven bats in the lineup, and things are going to turn around eventually. They still rank sixth in xwOBA this season, and Matt Shaw is the only above-average bat missing from the lineup.
The Pirates haven't been in great form at the plate of late, as they hold a wRC+ of 94 over the last 14 days and hold the highest strikeout rate in MLB.
Pick: Cubs ML (+110 or Better)
Marlins vs Blue Jays Picks
Braydon Fisher will open things up for the Blue Jays on Tuesday, before Spencer Miles presumably enters the game in bulk relief. Toronto effectively employed the same strategy last Thursday against the Yankees to earn a 2-0 win, and it should remain a strong combination moving forward.
Miles has pitched to a 2.17 ERA and 3.05 xFIP across 29 innings this season and holds a Pitching+ rating of 105. He's commanded his four-pitch mix quite effectively and ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. Fisher also holds strong underlying results, as does the majority of Toronto's bullpen, which ranks first in xFIP and third in strikeout minus walk rate.
With Nathan Lukes healthy, the Blue Jays are pretty deep in the outfield, and after Daulton Varsho rested on Monday, he will presumably be back in center field. For the sake of this bet, hopefully, that will mean Yohendrick Pinango will not start in left, as he is the only below-average fielder on the team, but has also been a competent bat.
The Blue Jays continue to struggle to replicate the offensive approach that led to such strong results last season. Their plate discipline has fallen off significantly, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr's struggles, coupled with the absences of Alejandro Kirk and Addison Barger, have led to a significant lack of power. They hold a wRC+ of 82 over the last 14 days and 92 this season.
Sandy Alcantara is not the pitcher he was pre-Tommy John, but he's still had a solid campaign, posting an xERA of 3.35 and a Pitching+ rating of 105.
Miami's offense has also not been in strong form, as over the last 30 days, it has a wRC+ of 89 and slugged just .368.
Pick: Under 8 (-130 or Better)
Yankees vs Royals Picks
With a 1.50 ERA throughout 66 innings of work, Cam Schlittler is the current betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young at +150. He has a strong opportunity to continue building his case on Tuesday, as he takes on a Royals side that holds a wRC+ of 92 over the last 30 days, and ranks 24th in xwOBA.
Schlittler is not only the betting favorite to win the Cy Young because of the lead he has built, but because of the fact that his underlying portfolio suggests he has been the most dominant starter in the AL. He holds a strikeout minus walk rate of 24.5% and holds an exceptional Pitching+ rating of 116.
Schlittler will likely receive some run support early on in this matchup, with the Yankees' high-powered lineup facing off against Bailey Falter. Falter pitched to an xERA of 4.89 and an xFIP of 5.03 in 2025, and looks comparably shaky this year with an xERA of 4.79 and an xFIP of 5.41.
Even compared to last season, Falter's pitch metrics have fallen off a cliff (Pitching+ rating of 76), and he's walked 14.6% of batters while generating very little swing and miss when pitching inside the zone.
Pick: Cam Schlittler to Record a Win (-110 or Better)
Nick Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, May 26
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Chicago Cubs ML (+115, DraftKings | Play to +110)
- Marlins vs Blue Jays Under 8 (-120, bet365 | Play to -130)
- Cam Schlittler to Record a Win (-105, bet365 | Play to -110)
