The Miami Marlins host the Cleveland Guardians on July 10, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Guardians are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Marlins Prediction
- Guardians vs Marlins Pick: Sandy Alcantara Under 19.5 Pitching Outs (-120; Play to Under 18.5)
My Guardians vs Marlins best bet is on Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara to go under his outs prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Marlins Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7 -125o / 105u | +100 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7 -125o / 105u | -120 |
- Guardians vs Marlins moneyline: Guardians +100, Marlins -120
- Guardians vs Marlins over/under: 7 (-125o / +105u)
- Guardians vs Marlins spread: Guardians -1.5 (+170), Marlins +1.5 (-210)
Guardians vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| LHP Parker Messick (CLE) | Stat | RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | W-L | 10-4 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 2.80/3.22 | ERA / xERA | 4.00/3.78 |
| 3.09/3.45 | FIP / xFIP | 3.86/4.23 |
| 18.2% | K-BB% | 11.4% |
| 43.3% | GB% | 45.0% |
| .272 | BABIP | .295 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 106 | Location+ | 103 |
Guardians vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
By Derek Carty
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
Sandy Alcantara is a former Cy Young winner, but he simply isn't the same pitcher he used to be. When I look at my advanced metrics and Statcast data, his "stuff" metrics have dropped considerably over the last couple of years.
At this point in his career, I don't view him as anything more than a league-average pitcher.
Today, he faces a Cleveland Guardians offense that loves to work deep counts, see a lot of pitches, and draw walks.
Because of that patient approach, I expect them to run up his pitch count relatively early.
While Miami's management is usually willing to give Sandy a long leash and let him throw a ton of pitches—and we know he's capable of deep runs into the game—asking any pitcher to clear the seventh inning against a high-walk team is a very tall order.
Guardians vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
My model projects Alcantara for exactly 18 outs today. That gives us roughly a 70% chance that he doesn't come back out for that seventh inning, making the Under a great value play.
We're looking at him Under 19.5 outs at -120 on BetMGM, which is currently the best price on the board.
The books are a bit split on this line; some have it at 19.5 and others are at 18.5. Personally, I'm comfortable betting either one. There is an Under 18.5 at -132 over on FanDuel, and I am totally fine backing that as well.
Pick: Sandy Alcantara Under 19.5 Pitching Outs (-120; Play to Under 18.5)
