The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on July 10, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Brewers are +104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Brewers vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction
- Brewers vs Pirates Pick: Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+119)
Our Brewers vs Pirates best bet is on Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft to go over his strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Pirates Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -193 | 8 -111o / -108u | +104 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8 -111o / -108u | -126 |
- Brewers vs Pirates moneyline: Brewers +104, Pirates -126
- Brewers vs Pirates over/under: 8 (-111o / -108u)
- Brewers vs Pirates spread: Pirates -1.5 (+158), Brewers +1.5 (-193)
Brewers vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| RHP Brandon Sproat (MIL) | Stat | RHP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 9-3 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 5.13/4.72 | ERA / xERA | 3.24/3.18 |
| 4.92/4.13 | FIP / xFIP | 3.16/3.19 |
| 14.0% | K-BB% | 22.1% |
| 43.0% | GB% | 44.7% |
| .292 | BABIP | .299 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 96 | Location+ | 106 |
Brewers vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
The NL Central takes center stage this Friday at PNC Park as the first-place Milwaukee Brewers travel to face the Pittsburgh Pirates in the fourth matchup between these divisional rivals this season.
The Brewers enter the contest holding a commanding 59-34 record overall, bolstered by an impressive 30-16 showing on the road.
A massive key to Milwaukee's success has been their power, as they boast a 17-7 record in games where they launch two or more home runs.
They will look to keep their momentum rolling behind right-hander Brandon Sproat, who carries a 3-4 record, a 5.13 ERA, and a 1.37 WHIP with 84 strikeouts on the season.
While his season-long metrics appear elevated, Sproat has found his groove recently, surrendering a mere three earned runs across his last 15 and a third innings. The Brewers have capitalized on this sharp form, winning all three of those recent outings.
The Pirates look to defend their home turf and push past their even 47-47 overall and 24-24 home records.
Pittsburgh's offense is clicking at a high level, carrying a collective .262 batting average that ranks second in the National League.
The lineup is coming off a strong performance on Thursday against the Braves, highlighted by a spectacular four-hit game from Jake Mangum.
On the mound, the Pirates counter with their newly minted, first-time All-Star Braxton Ashcraft.
Ashcraft has been stellar this year, playing the role of a true anchor with a 9-3 record, a 3.24 ERA, a microscopic 1.10 WHIP, and 122 strikeouts.
Brewers vs Pirates Pick, Betting Analysis
Action PRO projects Braxton Ashcraft for 6.94 Ks in her matchup against the Brewers, giving us a nice 9.3% edge against the market when compared to her current prop line of over/under 6.5, which is good enough to mark the under with an A grade in our system.
Ashcraft has been a model of consistency recently, comfortably clearing this exact strikeout threshold in each of his last four starts.
That dominant stretch includes a masterful 10-strikeout performance against the Seattle Mariners on June 24.
Given his exceptional ability to generate swings and misses, coupled with the fact that this prop is sitting at attractive plus money, there is excellent value in backing the Pittsburgh All-Star to keep his hot streak alive and hit the over on his strikeout total once again.
Pick: Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+119)
