MLB Pitcher Props for Tuesday: Should You Fade Aces Max Scherzer & Corbin Burnes? (May 25)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes
With a full slate of games, there are many props to choose from. Unsurprisingly, most of the pitcher props have been efficiently set for today’s slate. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like today, both unders.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop-bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 31-30, -3.4 Units, -5.6% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Max Scherzer (WAS) 9.5 Strikeouts (+130/-166)
|Reds vs. Nationals||Nationals -205|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball even at the age of 36. He pitches deep into games, allows minimal runs and has a high strikeout rate. That is why he unsurprisingly has a high strikeout total for tonight’s game against the Cincinnati Reds. His total is set at 9.5 strikeouts on FanDuel and 8.5 strikeouts on BetMGM.
The median MLB lineup strikes out 8.86 times per game, and that’s exactly where Cincinnati’s lineup is at. Whether Scherzer goes over his total depends solely on Scherzer.
Scherzer averages almost 6 1/3 innings per start, which is much higher than the typical MLB starter who only averages about five innings. Additionally, Scherzer has a strikeout rate of 12.14 strikeouts per nine innings. On a typical night, Scherzer has 8.5 strikeouts.
While Scherzer’s typical strikeout number is close to his total, the under looks like an even better bet once you scan his game log. Scherzer has only had 10 or more strikeouts in two of his nine starts. In five of his nine starts, Scherzer has had at least nine] strikeouts. That is why I prefer paying a heavy juice on Scherzer having fewer than 9.5 strikeouts than getting under 8.5 strikeouts at a more profitable price.
Pick: Max Scherzer (WAS) Under 9.5 Strikeouts (-166) (FanDuel) would play up to -175
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 5
Corbin Burnes (MIL) 8.5 Strikeouts (-140/+105)
|Padres vs. Brewers||Brewers -140|
|Time||7:40 p.m. ET|
Corbin Burnes has emerged this season as one of the best pitchers in the league. Burnes has +450 odds on DraftKings to win the NL Cy Young, which is the second-shortest price. With a 1.79 ERA, 1.36 xFIP, and a strikeout rate of 14.95 per nine innings, it is dangerous to take the under on his strikeout totals.
However, tonight I recommend playing with fire and betting that Burnes has under 8.5 strikeouts.
On a typical night, Burnes goes 5 2/3 innings. Based on his current strikeout rate, Burnes should have 9.47 strikeouts. However, going into the season Burnes was expected to have a strikeout rate of 11.97. When you adjust Burnes’ usage for his preseason projections, Burnes should have 7.6 strikeouts per start.
Even though the Padres have a strikeout-prone lineup, I believe that Burnes’ strikeout total is inflated based on his recent success. At plus money odds, the under on Burnes’ strikeout prop is a good bet to make.
Pick: Corbin Burnes Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+105) (BetMGM) would play up to -115
- Action Labs Score: 10
- Kevin Davis Score: 7