The Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs on September 20, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Cubs are favored by -157 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +132 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 10 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Reds Prediction
- Cubs vs Reds Pick: Cubs ML (-154)
My Cubs vs Reds best bet is on Chicago to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Cubs vs Reds Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 10.5 112o / -138u | -154 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 10.5 112o / -138u | +130 |
- Cubs vs Reds moneyline: Cubs -154, Reds +130
- Cubs vs Reds over/under: 10.5 (112o / -138u)
- Cubs vs Reds spread: Cubs -1.5 (+105), Reds +1.5 (-126)
Cubs vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| David Peterson | Stat | Rhett Lowder |
|---|---|---|
| 8-8 | W-L | 6-11 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 5.11 / 4.87 | ERA / xERA | 5.79 / 5.36 |
| 4.06 / 4.02 | FIP / xFIP | 4.78 / 4.84 |
| 10 | K-BB% | 8.3 |
| 50.7 | GB% | 40.8 |
| .328 | BABIP | .308 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 101 | Location+ | 104 |
Cubs vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
The "Road Flawed Chalk" Bet Labs system targets road favorites whose starting pitchers carry elevated ERA and WHIP numbers, creating the appearance of risk that often discourages bettors from backing them.
Despite those weaker pitching metrics, the market continues to install these teams as meaningful favorites, suggesting that broader team advantages such as lineup strength, bullpen depth, defensive support, or overall roster quality remain significant. Rather than focusing solely on the starting pitcher, this strategy trusts the market signal that these teams are still worthy favorites even with an imperfect arm on the mound.
By backing road favorites in these situations, the system looks to capitalize on cases where bettors overreact to pitching statistics and underestimate the strength of the team surrounding the starter.
Cubs vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
David Peterson's traditional surface stats look uninspiring on paper, which can naturally scare off casual bettors looking at a road favorite.
However, oddsmakers continue to price the Cubs as firm favorites because the overall roster dynamic dramatically favors Chicago. The Cubs are averaging 5.3 runs per game while holding a 4.19 team ERA, outmatching a Cincinnati club scoring just 4.2 runs per game with a 4.85 team ERA.
Additionally, the Reds send Rhett Lowder (6-11, 5.79 ERA) to the bump, giving Chicago’s offense an ideal surface to exploit.
Trust the market signal and back Chicago to secure the road victory.
Pick: Cubs ML (-154)
