MLB Player Props & Picks: 3 Bets, Including Eric Lauer & Adbert Alzolay (July 3)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Eric Lauer.
- There's plenty of MLB action on Saturday which means plenty of opportunity to play some props.
- Mike Ianniello breaks down his favorite strikeout totals, with one under and two overs.
- Continue reading for picks on Shane McClanahan, Eric Lauer and Adbert Alzolay.
I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Shane McClanahan — Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Blue Jays -116 |
| Time | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | PointsBet |
Shane McClanahan is a young rookie with great promise. He throws a nasty slider and a 97-mph fastball. The former first-round pick has made 11 big league starts this season and has a 4.09 ERA and 3.75 FIP.
The strikeout upside is there. McClanahan has a 10.84 K/9 this season with his slider generating a 46% Whiff%. If McClanahan can last six innings, he should be able to go over this total. I just don’t think he will last that long.
The Rays are still easing McClanahan fully into the rotation. He has lasted six innings only twice this season and is averaging 4.6 innings per start. Due to his lack of innings, he is averaging just 5.5 K’s per game this year and has gone over this total just three times this season.
This Toronto offense is red hot, and they crush the ball at home. The Blue Jays rank second in the league in wOBA and wRC+ this season and have the second lowest strikeout rate in baseball. I like the Jays to do enough damage early to get McClanahan out of the game before he reaches this total.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Eric Lauer — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+128)
| Brewers vs. Pittsburgh | Brewers -164 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Eric Lauer has served as the sixth starter for a Milwaukee Brewers rotation filled with three Cy Young candidates. Lauer has just a 4.50 ERA and 2-3 record in seven starts this year, and teams are batting .247 against him with a .336 wOBA.
In his last start, Lauer allowed just two hits and no runs while striking out six over six innings against the Rockies, his best outing of the season.
While Lauer doesn’t exactly scream swing-and-miss stuff, he does have a solid 9.61 K/9 rate and has averaged five strikeouts per start. So you have to ask yourself, if his average strikeouts per game is five, is he likely to go above or below his average against the Pirates.
Pittsburgh’s offense is last in the league in wOBA and wRC+ this season and averages just 3.47 runs per game. The Brewers are rolling right now, and I like Lauer to go over this total against the lowly Pirates.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Adbert Alzolay — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Cubs vs. Reds | Reds -127 |
| Time | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Adbert Alzolay has been bad for the Cubs this year, there is no denying that. He has a 4-7 record and a 4.55 ERA and 4.90 FIP. Teams have a .244 xBA and .x336 xwOBA against him.
However, his strikeouts have been there. Alzolay has a 9.64 K/9 rate this season and is averaging 5.4 strikeouts per start this year. In his 13 outings this season, he has racked up at least five K’s in nine of them.
In basically any start Alzolay has lasted five innings, he has gone over this total. The Reds rank just 19th in wOBA over the last week, and when Alzolay faced them in May, he went 5 2/3 innings allowing no runs and struck out six. I’ll back him to go over this total again here.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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