Thursday’s MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Target Patrick Corbin’s Strikeout Total Against Cincinnati (September 23)
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Corbin
- The MLB prop bet market features plenty of options from Thursday's loaded slate.
- With one afternoon game behind us, there's still value on Patrick Corbin of the Nationals tonight.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the slate with a prop pick from one evening affair.
After taking a good, long look at today’s MLB card using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve identified two strikeout totals that provide value.
Our tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+130)
|Giants vs. Padres||Giants (-116)|
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
I’ve loved backing Logan Webb all year. The home-grown Giants prospect is the biggest secret in baseball, as he’d be the ace of half the teams in baseball.
Since May 11, the Giants are an astounding 16-1 in games that Webb has started. During that time, he’s posted a 9-0 record in decisions while recording a 2.06 ERA and a 2.45 FIP.
Webb’s hit over 5.5 strikeouts in 12 of his 24 starts this season. While that 50% hit rate would already provide value at a plus-money price, he’s been missing bats at an abnormal rate recently.
Webb’s struck out six or more in eight of his last nine starts, thrice recording eight or more. He went seven innings in five of those starts and didn’t once record fewer than six innings, posting a 10.31 K/9 in the process.
The Padres don’t strike out a whole lot, but the offense is in free-fall. They’ve posted just an 81 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the past month, good for third-worst in baseball during that stretch.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool is projecting him at 5.6 strikeouts, and FanGraphs’ SaberSim Projections has him notching 5.85 Ks. I’m even higher than him on that. I’m expecting a seven-inning shutout start from Webb tonight, and six strikeouts feels like a lock.
The projections indicate value at the +130 price. But if you’re hesitant, you can still catch Webb over 4.5 at -160 on DraftKings.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Patrick Corbin Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-152)
|Nationals vs. Reds||Reds (-210)|
|Time||6:40 p.m. ET|
Patrick Corbin’s had a tough year, and I’ve done well fading him this season.
So I’m surprised to see the consensus line is at 5.5 Ks for him tonight. I would’ve almost certainly guessed 4.5. But since we’re getting it at around -150, I’ll happily bet it.
Corbin’s hit six strikeouts in just six of his 29 starts this season. That 21% hit rate makes the implied odds on the under closer to -380 than -150. He’s gone under 5.5 strikeouts in his last five starts as well.
The Reds strike out at the seventh-highest rate vs. RHPs this season. But the projections agree that this line is a tad high.
The Action Labs Player Props tool projects him at just 4.4 strikeouts, while FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections has him at 4.82. I’ll more than happily play the under 5.5 in this spot.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
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