MLB Player Props: Can Tanner Roark Notch Five Strikeouts vs. the Braves?

MLB Player Props: Can Tanner Roark Notch Five Strikeouts vs. the Braves? article feature image

Apr 13, 2019; Monterrey, MEX; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Tanner Roark (35) walks back to the dugout after being replaced during the sixth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Estadio de Beisbol Monterrey. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on tonight's strikeout over/under for Tanner Roark.

There is a full day of games on tap for Wednesday, starting at 1:10 p.m. ET. I’m not one for long intros, so let’s get right into which of today’s MLB player props is worth betting right now!

MLB Player Props: Wednesday, April 24

  • Cinncinati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves : 6:40 p.m. ET

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Reds SP Tanner Roark

THE PICK: Under 4.5 (-114)

Roark would have (narrowly) beat this prop in his last two outings, hitting five strikeouts in each one. However, I’m keen on this spot against the Braves.

Overall, Roark’s 7.28 K/9 over the past 12 months is the seventh-lowest mark among starting pitchers toeing the rubber Wednesday. Now, he’ll be squaring off against a team with a 17.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past year — the lowest strikeout rate among teams today.

Additionally, Roark had a swinging-strike rate of just 8.4% last season and it’s currently sitting at 6.4% for 2019. And the Braves’ 10.2% swinging-strike rate is the fifth-lowest mark among teams this year, per FanGraphs.

We’re currently projecting Roark for 3.6 strikeouts. I wouldn’t bet this past -120.

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