We have officially entered the home stretch of the MLB season. With the regular season coming to a close this week, a handful of teams are still fighting for postseason hopes. Others remain vigilant for seeding purposes.
All that to say, meaningful games are still being played across the diamond, and that means there’s value to be found in the home run market! I’ve circled three players who I like to hit a home run tonight, all of whom are among MLB’s superstars.
Check out my favorite MLB player props today for Wednesday, September 23, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
MLB Player Props Today
- Francisco Lindor Home Run (17%, Kalshi)
- Corbin Carroll Home Run (19%, Kalshi)
- Junior Caminero Home Run (19%, Kalshi)
Mets vs Rangers Player Prop
Still searching for career home run No. 300, Francisco Lindor has as good an opportunity as ever against Rangers southpaw Cody Bradford.
While it’s been a quiet month from a production standpoint, with the Mets shortstop hitting just .198, he’s been mired by some bad batted-ball luck. The power is still there — he’s hit eight home runs over that span — and his xwOBA has slowly crept above league average, even if the results haven’t reflected it.
Despite a down season by his standards, Lindor still ranks in the 90th percentile among qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (49%) and is barreling the ball at an 8.9% clip, same as last season.
At this price and given the matchup, it’s tough to pass up on Lindor. Bradford takes the mound for the Rangers, looking to keep their postseason hopes alive. He’s primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his fastball and changeup more than 80% of the time.
Bradford relies on inducing soft contact, but he’s been mediocre in that regard. His high-80s fastball doesn’t generate many swings and misses, while his fly-ball tendencies create a favorable environment for home runs.
He’s also been hit hard by both right- and left-handed hitters, with his barrel rate jumping above 10% against righties. His xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA, too, suggesting some negative regression could be coming.
Lindor has been much more productive against right-handed pitching, but his underlying numbers suggest he’s been a bit unlucky against southpaws. FanGraphs has his xBA at .235, a full 45 points higher than his actual .190 average.
For what it’s worth, Lindor’s hard-hit rate this month is 57.4%, his highest mark since June. I expect that quality of contact to ultimately pay off against Bradford and the Rangers, and I’m happy to back Lindor in his quest for No. 300 tonight.
Pick: Francisco Lindor Home Run (17%, Kalshi)
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Player Prop
If there was ever a time to buy in on Corbin Carroll, it’s right now.
Similar to Lindor, this has been a quiet month for Carroll. He’s hitting just .203 in September with three home runs. But if you dig deeper into the underlying metrics, he’s experiencing some of the worst batted-ball luck in baseball.
Over his 15-day rolling hard-hit and fly-ball rate, both numbers have skyrocketed, yet the results haven’t followed suit. The same is true of his expected metrics.
In September, the Diamondbacks outfielder is barreling the ball a shocking 19.5% of the time. He has an xBA of .257 and an xSLG of .539, yet his actual numbers sit more than 50 points lower at .203 and .424, respectively.
Just look at his last game against Kyle Freeland and the Rockies.
Carroll hit a 392-foot flyout at 105.7 mph and a 357-foot double at 102.2 mph. He’s crushing the ball, and now he draws a favorable matchup against right-handed rookie Mason Adams.
To say Adams has struggled in his first big-league stint would be an understatement. He doesn’t have overpowering velocity and relies on generating weak contact. The issue? He’s allowed a 55.4% hard-hit rate and a double-digit barrel rate through his first five starts.
Adams is also struggling to keep the ball on the ground, while his 5.84 xERA suggests he’s actually been a bit fortunate to this point. He’s allowed a home run in each of his five starts, something I don’t expect to change anytime soon.
Carroll has posted a 13.9% barrel rate against right-handed pitching this season. Given the price and the quality of contact he’s producing, I’m happy to buy low on the superstar outfielder.
Pick: Corbin Carroll Home Run (19%, Kalshi)
Rays vs Yankees Player Prop
I am extremely surprised to see this high of a number for Junior Caminero to hit a home run.
Tied with Yordan Alvarez for the American League lead, Caminero has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. He continues to put up video-game numbers at just 23 years old, and his underlying metrics back up that dominance.
The Rays slugger ranks in the 90th percentile or better among all qualified hitters in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed. His barrel rate falls just shy of that mark at 12.8% (87th percentile), but that’s hardly a concern.
Caminero also has a slightly better barrel rate and hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching, setting up an interesting matchup against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees on Wednesday night.
I say interesting because, while we know what Cole can do, his game has some flaws. For starters, he ranks in the bottom 3% of all qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate (45.2%). He’s also struggled to limit barrels (8.7%, his highest mark since 2022) and continues to see his strikeout rate decline year over year.
Some of that can be attributed to age and injuries. Cole is still a great arm, but he’s not the dominant pitcher he once was. He primarily relies on a high-90s fastball, throwing it 52% of the time against right-handed hitters, and supplementing it with a slider 26% of the time.
The problem? Caminero has a +8 run value against the four-seam fastball and a +5 run value against the slider. If Cole thinks he can beat Caminero with a high-90s fastball, I’d think again.
Ultimately, this is simply too high a number to pass up on one of MLB’s best young sluggers.
Pick: Junior Caminero Home Run (19%, Kalshi)
