The Tampa Bay Rays (96-61) and New York Yankees (90-67) meet tonight, with the game set to start at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on RAYS and can be traded on Kalshi.
The Yankees are favored by -1.5 against the spread, with the over/under set at 6.5. The Yankees are the preferred trading option, while the Rays will be looking to pull off an upset.
Let's get into my Rays vs. Yankees predictions and picks, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Rays vs. Yankees Predictions, Odds
Rays vs. Yankees Pick
Rays vs. Yankees Pick: Junior Caminero Home Run (19%, Kalshi)
Rays vs. Yankees Analysis, Prediction
I am extremely surprised to see this high of a number for Junior Caminero to hit a home run.
Tied with Yordan Alvarez for the American League lead, Caminero has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. He continues to put up video-game numbers at just 23 years old, and his underlying metrics back up that dominance.
The Rays slugger ranks in the 90th percentile or better among all qualified hitters in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed. His barrel rate falls just shy of that mark at 12.8% (87th percentile), but that’s hardly a concern.
Caminero also has a slightly better barrel rate and hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching, setting up an interesting matchup against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees on Wednesday night.
I say interesting because, while we know what Cole can do, his game has some flaws. For starters, he ranks in the bottom 3% of all qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate (45.2%). He’s also struggled to limit barrels (8.7%, his highest mark since 2022) and continues to see his strikeout rate decline year over year.
Some of that can be attributed to age and injuries. Cole is still a great arm, but he’s not the dominant pitcher he once was. He primarily relies on a high-90s fastball, throwing it 52% of the time against right-handed hitters, and supplementing it with a slider 26% of the time.
The problem? Caminero has a +8 run value against the four-seam fastball and a +5 run value against the slider. If Cole thinks he can beat Caminero with a high-90s fastball, I’d think again.
Ultimately, this is simply too high a number to pass up on one of MLB’s best young sluggers.
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Trade: Junior Caminero Home Run (19%, Kalshi)
