MLB Player Prop Picks: Corbin Burnes’ Posting Unsustainable Numbers (Monday, April 26)
Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes
With a large slate of MLB games, there are many props to choose from. Today there are two props I like — an over and an under.
I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 17-13, +1.78 Units, +5.9% ROI. (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Corbin Burnes (MIL) 9.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
|Marlins vs. Brewers||MIL -185|
|Time||7:40 p.m. ET|
From a betting perspective, the Milwaukee Brewers are probably one of the most vexing teams for pitcher props. They have several starting pitchers who do not pitch for many innings yet strikeout batters at a high rate. To eclipse strikeout totals, pitchers need to strike batters out, but more importantly, pitch deep into games.
Brewers starting pitchers are averaging less than 5 1/3 innings per game and 10.34 strikeouts per nine innings. In a typical game a Brewers starting pitcher must pitch for 8 2/3 innings to have 10 strikeouts.
Corbin Burnes is averaging an unsustainable 14.79 strikeouts per nine innings and more than six innings per start. On a typical night, Burnes this season would have 9.86 strikeouts. However, Burnes’ high strikeout rate is unsustainable, and so is his average of more than six innings per start.
The Action Labs model projects Burnes to have only 6.2 strikeouts. My model is more bullish on Burnes as I have him at 6.7. Regardless of how much of a sweat the bet will be, the smartest bet you can make is for Burnes to have fewer than 9.5 strikeouts.
Pick: Corbin Burnes Under 9.5 Strikeouts (-145). Would play up to -160 (BetMGM)
- Action Labs Score: 10
- Kevin Davis Score: 7
Austin Gomber (COL) 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+100)
|Rockies vs. Giants||SFG -165|
|Time||9:45 p.m. ET|
Austin Gomber is probably one of the least known starting pitchers in the league. As a 27-year-old, Gomber has only pitched for 125 1/3 innings over the course of the last four years. Gomber was packed into the Nolan Arenado trade with four minor leaguers.
Gomber may be a relatively anonymous player but he has a decent strikeout rate, and he can be relied upon to rack up some innings. He pitched at least six in each of his last three starts. Currently, Gomber has a strikeout rate of 8.44 per nine innings. As a rule, Gomber is throwing a strikeout for each inning. Over the course of a typical game, Gomber should have around six strikeouts.
My model has Gomber at 5.26 strikeouts, while the Action Labs model projects him to have only 4.6 strikeouts. Even though the Action Labs model is less bullish than mine on Gomber, both of our models recommend the over on his strikeout total.
Pick: Austin Gomber Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135). Would play up to -150 (BetMGM)
- Action Labs Score: 6
- Kevin Davis Score: 8