MLB Odds & Player Props: How to Bet Patrick Sandoval, Braxton Garrett & Joe Musgrove
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove.
- Another full day of MLB action means another day with betting value on player props.
- Doug Ziefel came through with three player props on Saturday, including picks for Joe Musgrove, Patrick Sandoval and Braxton Garrett.
- Check out all three of Ziefel's top player props for Saturday's MLB games below.
We have another incredible Saturday slate of action on the diamond upon us. That means we have more player props to capitalize on.
I've locked in on three starters who are set for various successes today. So, let's see who they are and how we're betting them in today's top MLB player props.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, May 20
Braxton Garrett Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
| Marlins vs. Giants | |
| First Pitch | 4:05 pm ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
One quick glance at Braxton Garrett's numbers will tell you that he has not gotten off to a great start in 2023. However, the strikeouts have been flowing in his better outings, and he has another great matchup ahead of him.
Garrett gets to face the San Francisco Giants this afternoon. The Giants come in with the third-highest strikeout rate in the Majors. While they're in third, it's important to note that they're just .02 percent away from having the highest strikeout rate in all of baseball.
When Garrett is on, he tends to rack up strikeouts, and he's gone over this total in four of his seven starts this season. What he's done this year adds to a long trend of success, as he's gone over this number in 56% of his previous 25 starts.
With implied odds of -127 and our Action Labs projections having him pegged for 5.3 strikeouts, this is a strong angle to back.
Pick: Garrett Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Patrick Sandoval Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-185)
| Twins vs. Angels | |
| First Pitch | 10:07 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Patrick Sandoval was a breakout stud last season. While his 2023 campaign has started with solid numbers, he's not quite the same pitcher, and it's impacted his ability to go deep into games.
Sandoval's strikeout rate is down significantly, sitting over 7% lower than in 2022. Although his command has been similar, his inability to miss bats has led to many hits.
Tonight, he'll face a Twins lineup that has shown they can be all or nothing. Minnesota leads the Majors in strikeout rate, but they have power littered throughout the lineup.
Sandoval's xERA points to sizable regression, and the Twins are the team that can knock him around.
Odds are his outing will be short tonight, and history backs it up. Over this last 35 starts, he has gone under this total in 74% of them.
Those implied odds of -288 give tremendous value to this price.
Pick: Sandoval Under 18.5 Outs
Joe Musgrove Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
| Red Sox vs. Padres | |
| First Pitch | 10:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Joe Musgrove has been sensational since dawning the mustard and brown, but a toe injury gave him a late start to this season, and he has yet to fully return to form.
His 6.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP through his first four starts are unsightly, but the strikeouts have been there for the Padres right-hander.
Tonight, he'll face a Red Sox team that doesn't strike out all that often, but the edge isn't in the matchup. This total is far too low for Musgrove, as we should expect him to positively regress.
As Musgrove returns to form, solid strikeout totals will come along with that. He's gone over this total 69.6% of the time over his last 69 starts.
That gives us implied odds of -228. Back Musgrove to bounce back tonight.
Pick: Musgrove Over 4.5 Strikeouts
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