MLB Playoff Odds, Picks Today | Same Game Parlay For Phillies vs Cardinals Game 1 (Friday, October 7)

Phillies vs. Cardinals Game 1 Odds

It was an up-and-down season for the Philadelphia Phillies. It began with a 22-29 start. That led to the ousting of manager Joe Girardi. The team was able to right the ship under interim manager Rob Thompson and went 65-46 the rest of the way.

Even an injury to 2021 NL MVP Bryce Harper could not derail the momentum. As a result, the Phillies earned the third wild-card spot in the NL and ended a 10-year playoff drought in the process. Their reward is the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Wild Card Round.

The Cardinals spent much of the first half in second place. However, the team went 43-25 and pulled away from the Milwaukee Brewers to claim the NL Central title. The Cardinals earned the third seed in the NL and the right to host this series.

The pitching matchup is set with Phillies ace Zach Wheeler going against Jose Quintana for the Cardinals. Let's cook up a same-game parlay to begin this series.

The Parlay (odds):  +647

• First Inning Result – Tie (-150)
• Alec Bohm to Record a Hit (-210)
• Brendan Donovan to Record a Hit (-190)
• Zach Wheeler over 4.5 Strikeouts (-108)

Same-Game Parlay – Phillies vs. Cardinals

First Inning Result – Tie

Playing the tie on the First Inning Result is my preferred way of playing NRFI, particularly in a parlay. The odds are very similar; the First Inning Result Tie is -150 and NRFI is -140, in this case. However, there is one very big difference. If one run is scored in the first inning, this leg is a loss. However playing the tie, if the Phillies score a run or two in the top half of the inning and the Cardinals match them, the leg would still hit.

At any rate, let's assume that a run will not be scored in the first inning. Zach Wheeler posted 1.38 ERA in the first inning this season, allowing four earned runs in 26 starts. Two of those runs came via home runs. Wheeler will have to deal with Paul Goldschmidt and possibly Nolan Arenado in the first inning. However, if he does not allow a home run in the first inning, the Cardinals likely will not score in the first.

Jose Quintana allowed five runs in the first inning in 32 starts, posting a 1.41 ERA in the first inning. He allowed three home runs in the first inning. The Phillies have power bats at the top of the lineup with Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper. However, Quintana will have the advantage as a left-handed pitcher against the left-handed hitting Schwarber and Harper. I like Quintana to get out of the first inning unscathed.

Alec Bohm To Record A Hit

Alec Bohm was one of the hottest hitters in the second half. Between July and August, he posted a .335 batting average. He did tail off toward the end of the season, hitting only .136 in October. However, Bohm had a hit in three of the last four full games he played to close the regular season. A 1-for-4 or 1-for-5 day would be perfectly fine for us.

Bohm is 1-for-3 in his career against Quintana. He also hit .352 with a .935 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season. If Bohm gets two or threes against Quintana, I expect him to get at least one hit.

Brendan Donovan to Record A Hit

Donovan posted a fine rookie season, hitting .281 with a .779 OPS. In September, he often hit at the top of the Cardinals lineup. As a result, he got better pitches to hit thanks to the presence of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado behind him. Donovan closed the regular season by hitting .304  (7-for-23) in his last seven games.

Donovan was 1-for-6 against Wheeler this season. He hit .282 with all five of his home runs against right-handed pitchers.

Zach Wheeler Over 4.5 Strikeouts

The last leg of our parlay adds most of the juice. Wheeler was one of the best strikeouts artists in the NL this season. He averaged more than a strikeout per inning with 163 strikeouts in 153 1/3 innings.

Wheeler made three starts since returning from the IL in September. He threw 58, 62 and 77 pitches in those starts. He could have went for 90 in his last start, but the Phillies had a eight-run lead and took him out at 77 pitches instead.

Wheeler had five strikeouts in each of his last two starts. The playoffs are a different stage and Wheeler will be making his first postseason start. However, the strength of this Phillies pitching staff is its rotation, not its bullpen. Wheeler will be given every opportunity to go deep in this game if he pitches well. He did post two starts of seven scoreless against the Cardinals this season as well.

The Phillies will be hoping Wheeler's first postseason goes similarly to the late great Roy Halladay, when he tossed a no-hitter against the Reds. I will be hoping Wheeler gets five strikeouts to cash our parlay.

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