MLB Playoff Prop Bet Picks on Sunday for Phillies vs Padres & Yankees vs Astros
Via Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Lance McCullers Jr. #43 of the Houston Astros delivers during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Minute Maid Park on August 26, 2022 in Houston, Texas.
- This might be the last multi-game MLB slate of the season, and that means there is plenty of prop value to be found in the market.
- Doug Ziefel uses the Action Labs Props Tool to break down his favorite pair of plays for Sunday's pivotal MLB matchups.
- Check out his picks and analysis below.
We started off the weekend hot as Gerrit Cole sailed over his strikeout total yesterday, and then Kyle Schwarber went over his total bases prop with authority.
However, there is no riding high as we’re back in the lab for this crucial Sunday slate. Both the Phillies and the Astros can punch tickets to the World Series today, and it just so happens that each of our top props are targeting guys who will help them do just that. So let’s find out who will get their club to the Fall Classic.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
|Padres vs. Phillies|
|First Pitch||2:37 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: +130||DraftKings|
We’re going right back to the well here with these Phillies lefties at home, except today I’m targeting Bryce Harper. Harper has been scorching hot this postseason, and he was a fixture in last night’s 10-run output. Overall, he’s hitting .410 with a .872 slugging percentage.
This afternoon he’ll get to see Yu Darvish for the second time in this series. In Game 1, he homered off Darvish to help propel the Phils to victory, and the numbers point to him doing more damage off Darvish today.
Harper’s sample size against Darvish is not huge, but he’s 2-for-9, with both hits being homers. However, he’s also put three other balls in play off Darvish and has an Average Exit Velocity of 104.9 mph. Additionally, his xBA of .336 and xSLG of .895 are pointing towards him staying red hot.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases
Action Labs Grade: 9
Lance McCullers Jr. Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Astros vs. Yankees|
|First Pitch||7:07 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: +105||DraftKings|
Lance McCullers carved up the Seattle Mariners in his last start as he had it all working against them. His stuff was electric and had them off balance all night. He would exit after six innings, having racked up seven strikeouts, and he’s lined up for plenty more tonight.
The Yankees have had trouble making contact in this series, which may be putting it lightly. They have struck out a whopping 41 times through the first three games. Tonight you add in McCullers, who has a career 23.4 percent Strikeout Rate against New York, and it could get extra windy from all the whiffs in the Bronx.
There are more numbers in McCullers’ favor tonight as well. This total is a shade too low for someone with the arsenal of McCullers. Over his last 39 starts, he has gone over this total in 64.1 percent of them. That gives us implied odds of -178, which is tremendous line value at the current number.
Lastly, it always helps when projections agree with our side, and we have an overwhelming consensus on this.
Action Labs projection: 6.0
Saber Sim: 5.7
Ballpark Pal: 6.6
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Action Labs Grade: 7