MLB Playoff Props | PrizePicks Plays for October 12
Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Trea Turner
- With two NLDS games tonight, there's plenty of prop betting value in the market.
- Our props analyst is eying five hitter fantasy score plays, including one on Trea Turner.
- Check out Tony Sartori's picks and analysis below.
Even though we have just a two-game slate on Wednesday, there are still plenty of player props to attack on Day 2 of the Divisional Round.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Dansby Swanson Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5.5
Wednesday’s first game is Game 2 between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. After winning the series opener, Philadelphia will send right-hander Zack Wheeler to the mound.
In the Wild Card round, Wheeler shut down the Cardinals as he allowed zero runs on just two hits through six and one-third innings pitched. This great start was the continuation of a dominant end of the season.
Over Wheeler’s last four outings, he is 1-0 with a 0.42 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. We should expect this strong pitching to continue against Atlanta because in three starts against the Braves this season, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
That’s especially bad news for Dansby Swanson, who in his career against Wheeler is just 6-37 with 13 strikeouts. Across those 37 at-bats, Swanson has produced a mere .162 xBA, .322 xSLG, and .254 xwOBA.
When facing right-handed pitching this season, Swanson’s splits drop by approximately 12% as he has posted a .270 BA, .438 SLG, and .753 OPS. Swanson had a tough start to the postseason in Game 1, going 1-5 with a single and four strikeouts.
Now that he has to go against Wheeler, I expect more of the same on Wednesday.
Rhys Hoskins Hitter Fantasy Score Over 5.5
We are also going to back a few Philadelphia hitters in this game as they are slated to go against right-hander Kyle Wright. While he has had a great season, I am not sold on Wright as a lockdown starting pitcher.
His metrics this year are not the strongest as he has posted a .306 xwOBA, .244 xBA, and .384 xSLG. Those figures are not bad by any means, but they are not great either.
He was not particularly sharp in his playoff outing against the Mets, allowing two runs on seven hits through five innings. Over his last four games against the Phillies, Wright is 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA.
Rhys Hoskins is the first Phillies hitter we are backing against Wright. In 14 career plate appearances against the right-hander, Hoskins boasts a .273 BA, .636 SLG, and .450 wOBA. We should not expect regression in this specific matchup as the metrics are almost identical to those surface-level stats.
Hoskins went over this total in Game 1 with a double and a run scored, and hitting in the two-slot should give us plenty of opportunities once again.
Bryce Harper Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
Superstar Bryce Harper is the other Phillies hitter we are backing on Wednesday. Like Hoskins, he has had success against Wright.
In his career against the right-hander, Harper is 3-9 with a double, a homer, and three walks. His underlying numbers across those nine at-bats are even stronger as he boasts a .432 xBA, 1.046 xSLG, and .635 xwOBA.
As has been the case throughout his whole career, Harper’s numbers against right-handed pitching jump off the page this season. When facing right-handers, Harper has posted a .300 BA, .553 SLG, and .924 OPS.
Going over this total in two of the first three playoff games this year, we should expect another strong performance from Harper.
Freddie Freeman Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
Wednesday’s nightcap is Game 2 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. We will back a couple of Dodgers hitters in this contest as they are slated to go against right-hander Yu Darvish.
These plays are not a fade of Darvish by any means, who has been as excellent as advertised. However, in a battle of strength versus strength, I am siding with Los Angeles’ bats.
Freddie Freeman is the first hitter worth backing because in 25 career plate appearances against the right-hander, he has a strong .318 BA, .636 SLG, and .435 wOBA.
When facing right-handed pitching this season, Freeman has been one of the best hitters in baseball, boasting a .338 BA, .532 SLG, and .956 OPS. After a quiet Game 1, he should find his rhythm in this matchup.
Trea Turner Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7
Trea Turner is the other Dodgers hitter we’ll back. After starting off Game 1 with a homer, we should expect the star infielder to deliver once again on Wednesday.
Through 17 career plate appearances against Darvish, Turner has posted a .353 BA, .647 SLG, and .420 wOBA. We shouldn’t worry too much about regression as he has produced a .326 xBA, .492 xSLG, and .354 xwOBA through those 17 at-bats.
Posting a .296 BA, .461 SLG and .803 OPS this season, Turner has been a key part of this offense and should continue to be throughout the playoffs.