MLB Playoff Props | PrizePicks Plays for October 15
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Lance McCullers Jr. Over 5 Strikeouts
On Saturday afternoon, the Houston Astros will look to complete their sweep of the Seattle Mariners. While Seattle was the feel-good story of the season, it is likely that it comes to an end in this contest as the Mariners are slated to go against right-hander Lance McCullers Jr.
Since making his season debut in the middle of August after missing more than half the season with a forearm injury, McCullers has been dealing on the mound. Over his eight starts, he went 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
Based on his metrics over those eight starts, regression should not be an issue in the postseason as he produced a .294 xwOBA, .224 xBA and .342 xSLG. A big part of his success has been his ability to strike batters out as he boasts a 25.6 K%.
Since returning from injury, McCullers has collected at least five strikeouts in seven of his eight starts. We should expect this trend to continue against the Mariners.
Through 18 career starts against Seattle, the right-hander is 10-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. McCullers has collected at least five punchouts in 14 of those 18 outings.
Looking at the Mariners' projected starting lineup for Game 3, five of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 25% this season.
George Kirby Pitcher Fantasy Score Under 18.5
Taking the mound for Seattle in this contest is right-handed rookie George Kirby. While he came in and recorded a save against Toronto in the Wild Card Round, this game will be an entirely different beast.
Kirby did not end the regular season in the strongest form. Over his last three starts, he went 1-1 with a 7.30 ERA and 2.07 WHIP. The most concerning aspect of the late-season dip is that those three games were against the Oakland Athletics, TexasRangers and Detroit Tigers.
In his one start against the Astros this year, he allowed two runs on four hits in four innings. In an elimination game against a top-three lineup in baseball, expect the 24-year-old rookie to be a on short leash.
Joe Musgrove Pitcher Fantasy Score Over 24.5
The San Diego Padres look to advance to the NLCS with a win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday. Taking the mound for San Diego is right-hander Joe Musgrove, who has been dealing on the mound recently.
Musgrove was San Diego's starter in their win-or-go-home game against the New YorkMets in the Wild Card Round, and he was absolutely brilliant. In that game, he threw seven scoreless frames while allowing just one hit.
That outing was an extension of a terrific end to the regular season. Over his last five starts (including the Mets game), Musgrove is 2-0 with a 0.31 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.
One of those starts came against tonight's opponent, the Los Angeles Dodgers. In that outing, Musgrove tossed five scoreless innings while allowing just four hits and striking out eight.
Austin Nola Over 0.5 Hits
We are also backing a couple of Padres hitters in this game as they are slated to go against left-hander Tyler Anderson. The first guy we are backing is catcher Austin Nola.
Nola has been a staple at the bottom of the batting order for these playoffs for San Diego. Over their six playoff games thus far, he has posted a .389 BA, .500 SLG and .929 OPS.
We should expect him to keep It going against Anderson. Through his 16 career plate appearances against the left-hander, Nola has produced a .285 xBA, .431 xSLG, and .335 xwOBA.
When facing left-handed pitching this season, Nola's splits jump by approximately 22% as he boasts a .285 BA, .400 SLG, and .733 OPS. He has recorded at least one hit in five games this postseason.
San Diego hitting props are not yet listed at the time of writing. However, this prop has been available every time he has played this postseason.
If for some reason it is not listed, I would also back him to record a run, record an RBI or go over his hitter fantasy score total.
Brandon Drury Hitter Fantasy Score Over
The other San Diego hitter we are backing in this game is Brandon Drury. The infielder has been quiet throughout this postseason, but this is a matchup where he could finally make an impact.
Projected to hit in the five-slot, Drury should have plenty of opportunities to get over this total. Through 22 career plate appearances against Anderson, Drury boasts a .318 BA, .636 SLG and .397 wOBA.
Collecting four doubles and a homer over that stretch, he has shown off his power against the left-hander. We should not expect regression in this specific matchup.
Across those 22 plate appearances, he has produced a .373 xBA, .598 xSLG and .413 xwOBA. When facing left-handed pitching this season, Drury's splits jump by approximately 26% as he has posted a .299 BA, .626 SLG, and .955 OPS.
As mentioned in the Nola section, these props are not yet listed. Drury's fantasy total is typically available, but if It is not, I would also back him in any of the other options they give us.