Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, July 28.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview four games on the docket. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, July 28
Rays vs Yankees Pick
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -197 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | +109 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -133 |
Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs. Cam Schlittler (NYY)
Rasmussen (3.61 xERA, 16% K-BB%, 109 Pitching+) is getting stretched out for Tampa Bay once again. He's on a 150-inning limit, currently sitting at 95 with 55 remaining. If he averages five innings per game over 11 starts, he hits the mark.
Here's how his previous four outings have looked from that perspective:
- 4 IP, 75 pitches
- 2 IP, 53 pitches
- 2 IP, 32 pitches
- 2 IP, 54 pitches
Meanwhile, the Yankees offense was already in a rut, (90 wRC+ last two weeks, 24th) and historically, they have struggled without Aaron Judge. In 2023, the Yankees ranked as a bottom-five unit at the plate for long stretches while Judge missed time from April 27 to May 9 (72 wRC+, 28th) and June 3 to July 28 (84 wRC+, 27th)
Pitching models love Schlittler (108 Stuff+, 3.60 botERA), and his big stuff has avoided hard contact (3.48 xERA, 30% hard-hit rate). However, his double-digit walk rate has been an issue.
The Rays arenalso cold though, ranking 22nd in wRC+ over the last 30 days (96), 21st over the last 14 days (97) and 20th over the last week (90).
I project this total at 7.98 runs, so I'd bet the under 8.5 down to -110.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 or Better)
Phillies vs White Sox Pick
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -136 | 8 -117o / -103u | -225 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +112 | 8 -117o / -103u | +181 |
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs. Davis Martin (CWS)
This game will feature warm temperatures (85, feels like 93) and high humidity (74%), increasint the total projection from about 8.5 on a weather-neutral day to north of 9 today.
The White Sox have also crushed southpaw pitching, racking up a league-leading 139 wRC+ over the last 30 days with a 214 wRC+ and 1.139 OPS against lefties over the last two weeks. Against righties, though, that wRC+ number falls to 87 (25th).
Davis Martin has a sub-4.00 ERA and a career 4.4 xFIP. Still, projections and ERA estimators say he’s closer to a replacement-level arm than a No. 3 starter. He boasts a career-high 5.37 xERA, career-low 9.3% K-BB% and 22.7% CSW%, and a projected 5.11 FIP from The Bat.
These are also two bad defensive teams, with the White Sox sitting 25th in Defensive Runs Saved (-21) and the Phillies coming in at 27th (-30) in Defensive Runs Saved. When it comes to Outs Above Average, Philly sits 10th (5) and Chicago is 25th (-14).
Phillies 10th in OAA (5), White Sox 25th (-14)
My model has them at 23rd and 24th best defensive units for Monday.
Both teams also have below-average bullpens. The Phillies have been better of late but rank 18th in xFIP and 13th in K-BB% on the season. Meanwhile, the White Sox come in at 29th and 28th in those categories, respectively.
I project 9.17 runs for this game, so I'll bet the over 8.5 up to -115.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115 or Better)
Pirates vs Giants Pick
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -199 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | +112 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | -136 |
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs. Carson Whisenhunt (SF)
Monday marks the MLB debut for San Francisco starter Carson Whisenhunt. A 24-year-old southpaw, the Giants selected Whisenhunt in the second round (66th overall) out of East Carolina in 2022.
Whisenhunt has a double-plus 80-grade changeup but an average fastball and slide with average command. His rest-of-season FIP projection comes in at the 4.07-4.39 range.
Luckily for Whisenhunt, the Pirates have been woeful at the plate against left-handers, ranking 29th overall with a 68 wRC+. Over the last 30 days, that moves up to 27th (75), but it drops back to 28th (45) over the last two weeks.
The Giants offense has been slightly better and hotter of late, coming in at 18th in wRC+ (101) vs. righties since the Rafael Devers trade. Over the last 30 days, that moves to 22nd (98) and 10th (110) over the last two weeks.
This could also be Keller's last start as a Pirate after the Cedar Rapids, Iowa, native has put up a career best 3.82 ERA.
Pttsburgh has been better defensively (sixth in DRS, seventh in OAA), while San Francisco is 12th and 23rd, respectively.
The Giants had a bullpen game on Sunday night, so I would usually project a bigger 'pen edge between these teams, but I still
projected San Francisco at -149 with the total at 7.16 runs.
I'd bet the Giants to -135 and the under 8 to 7.5 at -105.
Pick: Giants ML -135 or Better · Under 8 (Play to 7.5 at -105)
Mariners vs Athletics Pick
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 10 -106o / -115u | -121 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 10 -106o / -115u | +100 |
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. JP Sears (A's)
Let's take a look at updated park factors for Sutter Health Park in 2025:
- +21% Runs (2nd)
- +7% Hits (3rd)
- +14% HR (9th)
- +8% Walks (4th)
- -3% Strikeouts (20th)
Monday's weather should be moderate (87 degrees, feels like 84), but 7-8 MPH winds out to left-center should boost scoring in a wind-receptive minor league park with minimal shielding.
Seattle has the best road offense in MLB, coming in with a wRC+ of 120.
Meanwhile, the A’s are miserable defensively without Denzel Clarke in center field, ranking 24th in Defensive Runs Saved and 26th in Outs Above Average with Clarke and 26th in DRS and 30th in OAA without him.
They project as the second-worst defensive club — only ahead of Colorado — on Monday
Both bullpens are also a bit overrated. The Mariners rank 23rd in xFIP and 19th in K-BB%, while the Athletics sit 26th and 23rd, respectively.
I have the total projected at 10.57, so I'd bet the over 9.5 to over 10 at -112.
Pick: Over 9.5 (Play to 10 at -112)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, July 28
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- Reds ML (+145 to +140)
- Giants ML (-120 to -135)
- Rays vs. Yankees Under 8.5 (+100 to -110)
- Phillies vs. White Sox Over 8.5 (-105 to -115)
- Cubs vs. Brewers Under 8 (-110) to 7.5 (-102)
- Marlins vs. Cardinals Under 8.5 (-115 to 8 at -105)
- Nationals vs. Astros Under 7.5 (-105 to -112)
- Rangers vs. Angels Over 8 (-115 to 8.5 at +100)
- Pirates vs. Giants Under 8 (-120 to 7.5 at -105)
- Mariners vs. A's Over 9.5 (-118 to 10 at -110)
