Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, July 10.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Marlins ML (-120)
- Padres ML (-117)
- Reds ML (+100)
Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins
Parker Messick takes on Sandy Alcantara tonight in Miami.
Messick has had the much better season to date, with his 2.80 ERA lower than Alcantara's 4.00, but Messick has been shaky in recent starts. He has a 3.95 ERA since June, with at least three earned runs allowed in three of six starts.
Meanwhile, Alcantara has a 2.98 ERA since June, with at least seven innings pitched in four of seven starts. He has found his form after a rough 4.66 ERA in his first 12 starts from March to May.
The Guardians' lineup is also much worse than the Marlins' red-hot offense. Miami is first in wRC+ in the past 30 days, while the Guardians rank fourth-worst.
Cleveland desperately misses superstar third baseman Jose Ramirez and will continue slumping until his return.
Also, Cleveland is likely without its top two relievers tonight. Both Hunter Gaddis and closer Cade Smith have pitched in back-to-back games, leaving the Guardians vulnerable in the latter frames.
Picks: Marlins ML (-120)
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Shota Imanaga, with his career 48.5% fly-ball rate, heads to Great American Ballpark's bandbox dimensions to face Hunter Greene in his second start of the season.
Greene struggled last week against the Orioles. He allowed eight earned runs across 3 1/3 innings while striking out seven and walking four.
Fortunately, we can chalk up this bad start to rust and take the silver lining in his 35% strikeout rate after elbow surgery. Greene is one of the best starters in baseball at full strength, and could be closer to form in start number two.
Imanaga has had a better season thus far than in 2025, yet he is still far from his rookie self. His 4.28 ERA is backed by a 3.67 xERA, 3.90 xFIP, and 3.78 SIERA.
These peripheral rates are solid, but due to his top-10 fly-ball rate, we have to take them with a grain of salt. Imanaga will be facing a Reds offense that ranks as the league's third-worst in the past month, but eighth on the season against left-handed pitchers.
Both bullpens are ravaged by injuries, making this battle of starting pitching much more crucial.
The Cubs have been MLB's third-best offense across the past month. However, they are better against LHP (117 wRC+) than RHP (106 wRC+).
Picks: Reds ML (+104)
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres
Shane Bieber faces JP Sears in the battle of fifth starters tonight.
Neither starter will cut it in a contender's playoff rotation, but both teams are desperate for pitching depth after suffering multiple injuries to their rotations.
Bieber has a 9.00 ERA in 13 IP this season, backed by a 13.41 xERA, 5.81 xFIP, and 5.69 SIERA. He has dealt with multiple injuries this season, yet is making his fourth straight start for Toronto.
JP Sears is also making his fourth straight start, but he is coming off an excellent outing against the Dodgers.
Sears allowed just one hit, two walks, and no earned runs across five frames in Los Angeles last week, with five strikeouts. He has always been a "JAG" starter, but Sears has not dealt with injuries this year as Bieber has. He is closer to a true MLB starter in 2026 than Bieber, who is living off name value.
Despite the Blue Jays' offense getting Alejandro Kirk back last month, they still rank among the league's worst in wRC+ (25th) across the past 30 days. The Padres rank around league average, with a 105 wRC+ during the span.
Also, the Blue Jays have struggled against Southpaws all season, despite having an offense loaded with right-handed hitting. They rank as MLB's third-worst offense against the side (84 wRC+).
Picks: Padres ML (-117)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, July 10
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Marlins ML (-120)
- Padres ML (-117)
- Reds ML (+100)
