Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Friday, October 17.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Friday, I preview Brewers vs. Dodgers and Blue Jays vs. Mariners. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Friday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Friday, October 17
Series Moneyline Corner
The market moved the Dodgers to between -3500 (97.2% implied) and -6000 (98.4% implied) to advance to the World Series, following their Game 3 win.
I project a slight edge (0.6%) on their updated series or NL Pennant price compared to my series line. However, I also show a larger edge on their Game 4 odds at a significantly better price, and I would recommend betting this series game by game for now.
And if you followed my recommendations throughout the playoffs, you should be riding multiple NL Pennant tickets on the Dodgers (at around +325, +220, and -105), in addition to their 4-0 sweep prop (+170) that I gave out before Game 3.
Considering their game 3 line closed (at best) at -165, and their current Game 4 line opened at -190, the Dodgers' fair odds to sweep before Game 3 (in hindsight) were ultimately around +145, but would move to +140 if Game 4 closes at -200, or +134 if it closes at my projected line of -218.
The ALCS moved to around a pick'em with the series tied before Game 5. I lean towards Toronto as the slight favorites, but you can find either Seattle or Toronto at -105, and their opponent at -115, depending on the book.
At ESPN Bet, you can find a slight edge on the Mariners to win in seven or their 4-3 correct score prop (projected +277, listed +300), which you can consider betting down to +290.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7 -115o / -105u | -115 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7 -115o / -105u | -105 |
Kevin Gausman vs. Bryce Miller
Bryce Miller and Kevin Gausman will meet in Game 5 in a rematch of Game 1, where Toronto closed around -165 favorites (62.3% implied) at home. After accounting for home field adjustment, you would typically expect the same pitching matchup to swing around 7% — pushing the Blue Jays down to around -125 favorites in the same matchup on the road.
Still, Game 1 was a much different spot for the Mariners, flying cross country from Seattle to Toronto after an emotional 15-inning marathon in a winner-take-all game, with Miller on three days' rest and an exhausted bullpen in tow.
In contrast, Dan Wilson will have All-Star Bryan Woo (3.10 xERA, 3.33 xFIP, 22.2% K-BB%, 111 Pitching+, 3.19 botERA) available as his first arm out of the bullpen behind Miller (career 3.84 xFIP, 18.9% K-BB% at home vs. 4.55, 12.5% on the road) in Game 5.
Like Miller, Woo has also proven more effective at home (3.25 xFIP, 24.1% K-BB%) than on the road (4.03 xFIP, 16.4% K-BB%) in his young career.
Seattle will hope those arms can get the Mariners to the late innings with a lead, and hand the ball over to some combination of Eduard Bazardo, Gabe Speier, Matt Brash, and Andres Munoz.
I'd expect a quick hook for Miller, as you saw in Game 4 with Luis Castillo, and would take his Under 11.5 Outs Recorded prop at any plus-money price.
Miller and Woo projects as a more effective combination than Kevin Gausman (3.70 xERA, 17.9% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 3.36 botERA) and, if necessary, Chris Bassitt (4.18 xERA, 3.84 xFIP, 15.5% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 4.23 botERA) for the Blue Jays. Gausman was also better at home (3.59 xFIP, 20.7% K-BB%) than on the road (3.93, 15.1% respectively) this season.
And as I have highlighted throughout the series, Seattle also has the superior bullpen, which projects more than a half-run better on a season-long ERA (4th vs. 15th in xFIP, 5th vs. 26th in K-BB%, 7th vs. 23rd in Pitching+, 4th vs. 28th in botERA after the trade deadline).
Still, Toronto's offense — which posted the lowest strikeout rate (17.8%) in MLB — has dug in over the past two days, forcing a below-average Mariners defense into mistakes while continuously stealing outs for their pitching staff. Toronto finished fourth in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and ninth in Outs Above Average (OAA) this season; Seattle finished 18th and 27th, respectively.
Despite superior pitching, given the Mariners' own offensive strikeout rate (23.3%, 23rd), I expected a potential disparity in production and an advantage for Toronto with runners in scoring position, which is beginning to play out in key spots.
The Blue Jays hit an MLB-best .292 with runners in scoring position this season, while the Mariners ranked 26th (.235); their rankings almost directly aligned with their respective ranks in strikeout rate. Unless Seattle's offense and pitching staff can overpower Toronto's for two of the next three games, they are going to let the AL Pennant slip away.
I projected the Mariners as -106 favorites and set the total at 6.56 runs for Game 4. Take the Mariners at even money or better, and play the Under to 7 (-110).
The total opened at 7 (-114 to the Under) at FanDuel, but 7.5 (between +100 and -115) at several other books, including DraftKings, ESPNBet, Fanatics, and BetMGM, and I took the 7.5 before the market moved downward.
The total never moved off of 7.5 for Game 4 despite heavy action to the Over, and I expect this will be another contrarian spot, given Toronto's recent offensive outburst.
Still, T-Mobile Park remains the second-most profitable Under ballpark in the Action Labs database (52.7% win, 2.1% ROI). When the total has closed between 6.5 and 7.5 in Seattle, the under has won at a 55.5% clip (+6.7% ROI) dating back to 2005.
Pick: Under 7.5 (bet to 7 -110) | Bryce Miller Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (bet to +100)
Brewers vs. Dodgers
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8 -105o / -115u | +165 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8 -105o / -115u | -200 |
TBD vs. Shohei Ohtani
As anticipated, the Brewers opted for Jacob Misiorowski in bulk innings in Game 3, and he was tremendous (5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 9 K), although potentially aided by late afternoon shadows.
Regardless of whether the Brewers won, however, they were always going to need a bullpen day to get through Game 4. Unfortunately, they are now in a 3-0 series hole, and their best relievers are overworked; Aaron Ashby and Abner Uribe have each pitched four times since last Sunday. And Shohei Ohtani has already faced Jared Koenig twice, too.
As a result, Pat Murphy could force Jose Quintana (4.23 xFIP, 12.7% K-BB% vs. lefties in 2025) and/or Robert Gasser (career 4.63 xFIP, 13.8% K-BB% vs. lefties) into Game 4 action — to shutdown Ohtani, Freddie Freeman or Max Muncy in a situational spot — with some combination of Chad Patrick (3.90 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, 101 Pitching+, 5.08 botERA) and Tobias Meyers (4.32 xERA, 10.5% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+, 4.30 botERA) used as bulk arms to turn over the Dodgers' lineup multiple times.
In other words, Game 4 is the worst pitching spot that the Brewers have had for the entire playoffs. Last week, I pointed out when adding Dodgers' futures for the final time that there seemed to be no way Milwaukee's pitching staff could survive three consecutive road games in a seven-game series, given their lack of starting pitching depth.
Additionally, in a limited 47-inning sample after returning from injury, Shohei Ohtani (2.45 xERQA, 2.45 xFIP, 28.2% K-BB%, 118 Pitching+, 2.99 botERA) posted the best underlying metrics among Dodgers' starting pitchers. Moreover, their bullpen remains extremely well-rested; only Blake Treinen and Roki Sasaki have worked twice in this series, but they combined for just 22 pitches on Thursday, and both had two days of rest between appearances.
Ohtani has thrown around 90 pitches and faced 22 and 23 batters in each of his past two starts, and given the Dodgers' 3-0 series lead, there is seemingly no reason to push him too aggressively. However, he also won't start again until Game 4 of the World Series, on October 28. You can expect a normal workload, almost regardless of the game situation.
His outs, hits, and walks props suggest he's likelier to face 21 hitters than 23. Still, even if you use 23 as a baseline, you would expect 7.6 strikeouts at Ohtani's 2025 strikeout rate (33%), but closer to 4.6 if you use the Brewers' projected strikeout rate, for a combined average of 6.1. I'd lower that projection to 5.6 if he faces 21 batters. Still, his strikeout prop is juiced correctly, near -135 at 6.5.
Instead, take Ohtani Over 15.5 Outs Recorded, up to 17.5 (+100); the Dodgers would love for him to complete six innings, more than ten days out from his next start.
Ultimately, I project the Dodgers as -218 favorites for Game 4, and I set the total at 7.96 runs.
Typically, I would bet the Dodgers to around -200, which is just under a two percent edge compared to my moneyline projection.
Still, considering I already have the +170 sweep ticket tied directly to Game 4, along with a potential 3.6 unit profit if they win the NL Pennant, I don't personally need to stake this game or invest at all, necessarily. If you tailed those tickets, you don't either.
If you didn't already bet on the Dodgers' pennant futures or their sweep prop, however, the Dodgers' moneyline is my recommended wager for Game 4. I would size your bet as you usually would, up to -200.
I will track a small bet — both in the App and in this article — at -200 or better. An edge is an edge, and I want to be clear that I think the Dodgers are the value side of the game. Still, there's no reason for you to personally add more to the position if you already tailed those futures.
Pick: Dodgers ML (Bet to -200) | Shohei Ohtani Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (bet to 17.5 +100)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, October 17
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Sides and Totals
- Blue Jays/Mariners Under 7.5 (-115, 1u) at Fanatics; bet to 7 (-110)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-180, 0.25u); bet to -200 (size typically if you don't have Dodgers NL Pennant futures or the series sweep ticket)
Player Props
- Bryce Miller Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (+150, 0.1u); bet to +100
- Shohei Ohtani Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+125, 0.2u) at BetMGM; bet to 17.5 (+100)
