Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, September 8.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Nationals vs. Marlins, Royals vs. Guardians, Braves vs. Cubs, and Red Sox vs. Athletics. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, September 8
Nationals vs. Marlins
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -115o / -105u | +105 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8 -115o / -105u | -125 |
Cade Cavalli vs. Janson Junk
The Nationals are worth backing against the Marlins tonight, with Cade Cavalli offering the higher ceiling on the mound and Washington holding key bullpen and lineup advantages. Cavalli brings legitimate stuff with a 109 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+, featuring four different pitches that all grade above 100, including an elite knuckle-curve and sinker. He’s also managed his walks better this season, which raises his overall projection.
By comparison, Janson Junk grades out with below-average stuff (94 Stuff+) and no pitch above 96, making him far more reliant on command. While their FIP projections are similar, Cavalli leans slightly stronger at a 4.20 average versus Junk’s 4.32.
At the plate, Miami’s offense continues to lag, ranking 28th in wRC+ over the last month and still missing their best bat in Kyle Stowers, while Washington has been at least competitive at 95 wRC+. The bullpen gap is even wider—Miami’s relief corps ranks dead last in xFIP over the past 30 days and has been gutted by multiple recent injuries, while the Nationals sit in the middle of the pack.
With the pitching edge, healthier lineup, and bullpen advantage, Washington holds value at projected +104, playable down to +112.
Pick: Nationals ML (+125 | Bet to +115)
Royals vs. Guardians
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +161 | 8 -116o / -104u | -102 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -116o / -104u | -119 |
Ryan Bergert vs. Slade Cecconi
The Royals look like the right side against the Guardians tonight, with both the bats and bullpen trending in their favor. Kansas City’s offense has been strong of late, ranking 11th in wRC+ over the last 30 days, while Cleveland has slumped to dead last in MLB during that span.
The Royals also hold the edge in relief, with a top-10 bullpen by both xFIP and K-BB% over the past month compared to below-average marks for the Guardians. On the mound, Ryan Bergert has shown the ability to outperform his projections—his 4.04 xERA and 3.87 botERA suggest better results than his FIP models indicate—thanks to a strong sense of sequencing and an ability to limit barrels even with average stuff.
Cooler temperatures and wind blowing in from right-center should suppress run scoring slightly, further favoring Kansas City in a lower-scoring matchup.
With both lineup momentum and bullpen strength behind them, the Royals project as slight favorites at -108, with betting value down to +100, and the under 8.5 also in play at -115.
Pick: Royals ML (+108 | Bet to +100) & Under 8.5 (-120 | Bet to 8 -115)
Braves vs. Cubs
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -135 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +110 |
Shota Imanaga vs. Bryce Elder
The Braves hold betting value against the Cubs tonight, with lineup health and defense playing a key role in the matchup. Chicago projects stronger if Pete Crow-Armstrong returns to center field after sitting Sunday with a knee issue, but if he’s out again—and especially if Kevin Alcantara also sits—the Cubs take a major defensive hit.
My model shows the drop-off from PCA to Willie Castro in center as the most impactful non-catcher defensive downgrade in baseball, shifting implied win probability by nearly three percent. Atlanta also draws its better offensive split, ranking 10th in MLB with a 115 wRC+ against lefties over the past month compared to just 16th against righties.
Bryce Elder has stabilized the Braves’ rotation since early August, posting a 4.06 ERA and 3.96 xFIP with improved command metrics. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ bullpen could be down a key arm in Daniel Palencia, who has quietly been one of their most effective relievers.
With those factors in play, the Braves are a bet to +107 if PCA starts in center, but become playable as favorites up to -102 if he’s sidelined again.
Pick: Braves ML (+120 | Bet to +107)
Red Sox vs. Athletics
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -170 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +140 |
Garrett Crochet vs. Luis Morales
The Athletics make for a live underdog against the Red Sox tonight, with Luis Morales continuing to impress in his early outings. The young righty brings premium velocity, sitting in the 94th percentile at 97.3 mph, and backs it up with a devastating sweeper/slider combo that grades out at a combined 137 Stuff+.
Even his changeup, which Stuff models underrate, has generated strong results with a .274 xwOBA allowed and sharp movement that plays well off his fastball. While projections see him as a mid-4s ERA arm, his arsenal and early results suggest he’s already better than that.
Offensively, Oakland has been the hotter lineup, ranking 7th in wRC+ over the last 30 days and 5th over the past two weeks, while Boston sits bottom half in both spans and remains without Roman Anthony. The A’s bullpen is also deeper than it’s given credit for, with solid performance behind Aroldis Chapman and better recent K-BB% numbers than Boston’s relief corps.
With a live arm in Morales, a surging offense, and a capable bullpen, Oakland holds value at projected +129, playable down to +140.
Pick: Athletics ML (+154 | Bet to +140)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, September 8
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- Nationals ML (+125 | Play to +115)
- Royals ML (+108 | Play to +100)
- Braves ML (+120 | Play to +107)
- Athletics ML (+154| Play to +140)
- Royals vs. Guardians Under 8.5 (-120 | Play to 8 -115)
- Mets vs. Phillies Under 9 (-110 | Play to -120)
- Brewers vs. Rangers Under 8.5 (-108 | Play to 8 -105)
- Twins vs. Angels Over 9 (-115 | Play to -120)
