Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, October 2.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Tigers vs. Guardians, Cubs vs. Padres, and Red Sox vs. Yankees. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Thursday, October 2
Series Moneyline Corner
While I favor the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS (projected -105), I project the Dodgers as the favorite over the final four games of the series — including both Games 2 and 5 in Philadelphia. I set Los Angeles as just under -120 favorites for the series overall. While we already have an NL Pennant position on the Dodgers, I would also consider taking their NLDS series price before Game 1, up to -110 (listed -112 at FanDuel).
Otherwise, I'd continue to bet the Dodgers to win the NL Pennant.
Public projections place the Dodgers as low as 37.9% (+163 implied) from FanGraphs, to as high as 48.3% (+107 implied) from The BAT, to win the National League; even their least optimistic projection indicates they are a value bet at current odds. I would put their median fair odds around +145 (41% implied) before the NLDS, and they are still as high as +225 (30.7% implied) at ESPN Bet; take them down to +175, at the very least, if not closer to +155. Anything north of +200 is too good to pass up, regardless of your current allocation.
However, considering I favor the Phillies in Game 1, I'd potentially make an even larger bet on the NLDS or the Dodgers before Game 2, at significantly better odds in both markets if they lose Game 1.
Lastly, I show value in the correct score market for the NLDS, setting the Dodgers to win in 5 games or to win the series 3-2 at +380 (20.8% implied), compared to listed odds as high as +420 (19.2% implied) at FanDuel. I'd poke that prop down to +405.
Tigers vs. Guardians
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -225 | 7 -105o / -115u | +100 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +185 | 7 -105o / -115u | -120 |
Jack Flaherty vs. Slade Cecconi
Cleveland played its best offensive lineup on Wednesday, which included the MLB debut (the sixth in postseason history) of top prospect Chase DeLauter, who started in center field — a position he has not played in over a year. I thought it was a curious decision, since DeLauter has suffered multiple significant leg and foot injuries, which have derailed his development. He dropped his first chance — a routine pop-up — and looked uncomfortable in limited opportunities, but the Guardians prevailed despite a significant disparity in scoring opportunities.
Through two games, the Tigers have left 21 runners on base, while going 2-for-23 with runners in scoring position (1-for-15, 15 LOB in Game 2 alone). Conversely, the Guardians went 2-for-3 with runners in scoring position on Wednesday — stranding just three baserunners (3-for-10 with 8 LOB in the series) — but scored six runs, including five in the bottom of the eighth inning to push our Under 7.
I would favor Detroit on a neutral field, but make them slight underdogs in Cleveland for Game 3 (projected +104) — a matchup that should feature extended bullpen use on both sides.
I wouldn't expect Jack Flaherty (4.03 xERA, 3.69 xFIP, 4.78 botERA, 18.9% K-BB%) or Slade Cecconi (5.23 xERA, 4.09 xFIP, 4.28 botERA, 14.1% K-BB%) to turn over the opposing lineup more than twice.
While the Guardians' bullpen is better on paper, the Tigers' key relievers potentially have the rest advantage. Cleveland used three of their top arms — Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, and Cade Smith — over each of the first two games in this series. The Tigers deployed Tyler Holton (3.80 xERA, 3.57 xFIP, 15.1% K-BB%) in a multi-inning stint on Wednesday; otherwise, their entire complement of relievers should be available.
The Guardians have done well to avoid feeding the Tigers a left-handed arm — beyond Sabrowski in short stints — given their drastic 2025 splits (19th vs. RHP; 2nd vs. LHP).
Still, lesser pitching on the mound should lead to increased balls in play for Detroit — relative to the first two games of this series — and I do see either DeLauter's defense, or Bo Naylor's defense (0 DRS; -2 in pitch framing runs saved) potentially costing the Guardians, as compared to say Dillon Dingler (+6 DRS; +4 Srike Zone) or Parker Meadows (career +7 DRS in Center Field) up the middle for Detroit.
I projected Thursday's total at 6.76 runs, and would bet Under 7.5 to 7 (-105)
The pitcher outs under props are set very low for this game — 12.5 (-141) for Flaherty and 12.5 (-157) for Cecconi. To turn over a batting order twice, and still record 13 outs, a pitcher mustn't permit more than five baserunners — both the Under 1.5 walks and Under 3.5 hits for both pitchers are heavily juiced to the under.
As a result, I could see one or both pitchers surviving to record an out against the bottom of the opposing order in the fifth inning, and I would pass on the outs recorded market for now.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 | Bet to 7 -105) | Jack Flaherty Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-141 | Bet to -150)
Padres vs. Cubs
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Yu Darvish vs. Jameson Taillon
The Cubs used potential Game 3 starter Colin Rea in relief in Game 2, leaving Jameson Taillon (3.89 xERA, 4.34 xFIP, 3.63 botERA) as their Game 3 starter against Yu Darvish (3.65 xERA, 4.15 xFIP, 3.97 botERA).
The betting market doesn't expect either to see the bottom of the opposing orders more once, however, with outs totals at 9.5 (-116 Under for Darvish and -143 for Taillon).
Given those over/under totals, I do think their hits allowed figures are too high. You can get Taillon Under 3.5 (-127) and Darvish Under 3.5 (-139), which I prefer to -140 and -150, respectively.
Mike Schlidt pulled Dylan Cease after 11 outs on Wednesday. Although the Padres used arguably their two most electric relievers — Adrian Morejon (2.53 xERA, 3.08 xFIP, 2.26 botERA) and Mason Miller (2.51 xERA, 2.27 xFIP, 3.66 botERA) — in the first two games of this series, they have Michael King (4.26 xERA, 4.20 xFIP, 3.89 botERA) available as a piggyback option behind Darvish.
The Cubs could use Aaron Civale (4.16 xERA, 4.73 xFIP, 5.08 botERA) as a long option, or deploy Mike Soroka (6 pitches on Wednesday; 3.42 xERA, 4.21 xFIP) again, if necessary, before going back to their high-leverage arms (Daniel Palencia, Brad Keller, Andrew Kittredge, Drew Pomeranz, Taylor Rogers, and Caleb Thielbar) each for three to five outs.
San Diego has generated more scoring chances through two games (3-for-18 with RISP, 11 LOB; 0-for-6, 6 LOB for Chicago), but the home team still projects as the significantly better defensive and baserunning club — worth up to five percent in terms of my implied win probability — which could make the difference in a game with a low total, featuring limited scoring opportunities for both teams.
I set the Cubs as -128 favorites for Game 3, and I would bet their moneyline up to -118. If you already have a series bet from before Game 1, I would reduce your bet sizing so as not to over-allocate to the same position. If you don't have a series bet on the Cubs, stake your wager as you usually would.
Despite anticipated extreme bullpen usage, I set the total at 7.4 runs and don't project an edge against the number; the weather is a bit warmer (80 real feel at peak on Thursday), and the wind is not blowing in like it was over the first two games of the series at Wrigley.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-110 | Bet to -118) | Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-119 | Bet to -135) | Yu Darvish Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-139 | Bet to -150)
Red Sox vs. Yankees
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +135 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -160 |
Connelly Early vs. Cam Schlittler
The Red Sox, who are short on starting pitching following Lucas Giolito's injury, are fortunate that they caught the Yankees in a short series. I'm not sure they could have managed their pitching staff as well against this Yankees lineup over a best-of-five or best-of-seven series.
Still, they have an opportunity to eliminate the reigning AL champions and their biggest rivals for the second consecutive day. Alex Cora gave his team the best pitching he could dictate on Wednesday, deploying six relievers behind Brayan Bello. Garrett Whitlock tossed 41 pitches across two innings and may be unavailable on Thursday, but every other arm in the Red Sox bullpen — including Aroldis Chapman— should be on speed dial.
Boston will start rookie southpaw Connelly Early (2.27 xERA, 2.35 xFIP, 3.47 botERA), who I personally view as their second most-talented starting pitcher. Early has shown excellent command (5.1% BB%, 108 Location+) and has a vast arsenal, including a plus changeup (107 Stuff+) and proper curve (100 Stuff+). Still, he has limited MLB experience (four starts) and has to start in a raucous road environment against the No. 1 offense in baseball against left-handed pitching.
I'd expect Early to face Trent Grisham twice and exit the game after ten batters faced. Still, he may see Aaron Judge for a second time (if the bases are empty), also to get him through lefties Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice a second time, too, which makes his out total (Under 8.5, +115) tricky.
The Yankees will counter with their own dynamic rookie, Cam Schlittler (3.98 xERA, 3.77 xFIP, 3.85 botERA, 112 Stuff+), whose out total is lined closer to 11.5 at plus money.
Boston's key relievers — particularly Chapman — are better rested, as the Yankees used David Bednar, Devin Williams, and Fernando Cruz in each of the first two games of the series, and I do expect Schlitler to stay in the game as long as he doesn't get into a big jam.
I projected the Yankes as near -130 favorites, and don't show value on either side of the moneyline.
However, I set the total at 7.13 runs and would bet Under 8 down to 7.5 (-110) in cooler temperatures (64 degrees at first pitch) with a light breeze (3-to-4 mph) blowing in from the short right field porch in the Bronx.
Pick: Under 8 (-115 | Bet to 7.5 -105)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, October 2
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Game 3 Sides and Totals
- Chicago Cubs (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to -118
- Red Sox / Yankees Under 8 (-115, 1u) at FanDuel; bet to 7.5 (-105)
- Tigers / Guardians, Under 7.5 (-110, 1u) at FanDuel; Bet to 7 (-105)
Game 3 Player Props
- Jack Flaherty Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-141, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
- Jameson Taillon Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-119, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to -135
- Yu Darvish Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-139, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
Series Futures and Props
- NLDS Correct Series Score: Dodgers 3-2 (+420, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +405
- NL Pennant: Los Angeles Dodgers (+225, 0.xu) at ESPNBet; bet to +175
