Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, July 29.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Rays vs. Yankees, Phillies vs. White Sox, Marlins vs. Cardinals, and Pirates vs. Giants. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, July 29
Rays vs. Yankees
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +158 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +104 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -194 |
RHP Joe Boyle (TBR) vs. LHP Max Fried (NYY)
Yankees starter Max Fried missed a chunk of time last season with forearm neuritis. More importantly, the injury significantly affected his command and control, as he posted a whopping 8% walk rate while walking three or more batters in 12 of his 29 outings.
Fried was near perfect in the control sector until mid-July, but he’s walked three or more batters in his past two outings while showing reduced pitch modeling metrics (95 Location+, 3.97 botERA).
Ultimately, I don’t believe Fried is pitching at 100% health.
Rays starter Joe Boyle has big-time stuff (107 Stuff+) but spotty command (career 14.3% BB). However, he’s limited the walks in a smaller 2025 sample (8.6% BB in MLB, 10.6% in Triple-A).
Beyond Boyle, the Rays will throw a bullpen game, and I trust Tampa’s relief unit, which ranks top-10 among MLB bullpens in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate over the past month. Meanwhile, Yankee relievers rank 28th in both metrics during the same stretch.
With Aaron Judge on the bench, I suspect the Yankees' offense will struggle. They played 56 games without him last season and ranked as a bottom-five offense.
The weather should be super favorable for hitting, with 94-degree temperatures and slight breezes out toward left field.
I project the Rays ML at +148 and the total at 9.25.
Pick: Rays ML (+175 | Play to +160) & Over 8.5 (-105 | Play to 9 +100)
Phillies vs. White Sox
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -127 | 8.5 -123o / 101u | -200 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +105 | 8.5 -123o / 101u | +162 |
LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) vs. RHP Jonathan Cannon (CWS)
We’re expecting hitter-friendly weather in Chicago on Tuesday, with similar conditions to Monday, but the wind is blowing out instead of cross-field.
Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo (4.58 ERA, 3.76 xERA) has been tipping pitches in July (18 IP, 18 H, 16 R, 11 BB, 25 K). He’s potentially fixed the issue, but regardless, the White Sox are crushing southpaws over the past month (142 wRC+, leads all MLB lineups).
These are two brutal defensive teams and two below-average bullpens.
I project the White Sox ML at +150 and the total at 9.33.
Pick: White Sox ML (+170 | Play to +165) & Over 8.5 (-110 | Play to 9 -104)
Marlins vs. Cardinals
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -157 | 7.5 -117o / -104u | +140 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +129 | 7.5 -117o / -104u | -172 |
RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs. RHP Sonny Gray (STL)
Sandy Alcantara’s trade value is peaking at the deadline, as he’s posted a 3.60 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 111 Pitching+, 3.28 botERA and 12.1% strikeout minus walk rate since June 1. He’s still lagging in the strikeout department, but his command has improved significantly.
Cardinals starter Sonny Gray (3.92 xERA, 2.89 xFIP) was having a great year until his past two starts (8 ⅓ IP, 22 H, 16 R, 0 BB, 10 K). That said, he’s still on pace for a career-low walk rate (4%).
These are two white-hot bullpens, and I project 7.13 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 8 (-113 | Play to 7.5 -105)
Pirates vs. Giants
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8 -110o / -111u | +129 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8 -110o / -111u | -157 |
LHP Bailey Falter (PIT) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (SFG)
We have reached the point in Justin Verlander’s career where Bailey Falter projects as a potentially better pitcher in a head-to-head matchup.
| Pitcher | xERA / xFIP | Pitching+ / botERA | K-BB% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 4.86 / 4.88 | 95 / 4.74 | 9.8% |
| Bailey Falter | 4.37 / 4.80 | 95 / 4.30 | 7.8% |
Yikes.
The Giants' lineup is in its much worse split against a southpaw, posting a 72 wRC+ against the side since trading for Rafael Devers.
Meanwhile, the Pirates are in their slightly better split against a right-handed pitcher (81 wRC+), and they’re the better defensive team.
I project the Pirates ML at +115.
Pick: Pirates ML (+136 | Play to +125)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, July 29
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- Rockies ML (+200 | Play to +185)
- Rays ML (+175 | Play to +160)
- Cubs ML (+105 | Play to +100)
- White Sox ML (+170 | Play to +165)
- Astros ML (-111 | Play to -133)
- Pirates ML (+136 | Play to +125)
- Blue Jays vs. Orioles G1 Under 10.5 (-110 | Play to 10, -115)
- Blue Jays vs. Orioles G2 Under 9.5 (-103 | Play to -112)
- Rays vs. Yankees Over 8.5 (-105 | Play to 9 +100)
- Red Sox vs. Twins Over 8.5 (-114 | Play to 9 +100)
- Braves vs. Royals Over 9.5 (-104) | Play to -110)
- Phillies vs White Sox Over 8.5 (-110 | Play to 9 -104)
- Marlins vs. Cardinals Under 8 (-113 | Play to 7.5 -105)
