Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, August 13.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Pirates vs. Brewers, Rockies vs. Cardinals, Cubs vs. Blue Jays, and Red Sox vs. Astros. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, August 13
Pirates vs. Brewers
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -235 |
RHP Mitch Keller (PIT) vs. RHP Brandon Woodruff (MIL)
Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff looked dominant in his return from the IL (2.16 xERA, 2.91 xFIP, 30.2% K-BB). However, he’s lost some velocity (93.2 MPH on average), which has affected his advanced pitching model metrics (96 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+, 3.58 botERA).
The Pirates' offense is functional against southpaws but useless against righties (83 wRC+). Meanwhile, the Brewers’ lineup is impossible hot but due for serious regression, especially in the RISP department (league-best .288 average, 10-for-19 in this series alone).
We have a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate in Bill Miller (53.1% Under, 2.2% ROI since 2005, +1.1% K-BB compared to MLB average).
Additionally, both teams should be able to air out their bullpens with off days on Thursday, and I'm a fan of Pittsburgh’s bullpen and defense.
I project 6.88 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-106 | Play to -115)
Rockies vs. Cardinals
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 9 100o / -120u | +180 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 9 100o / -120u | -220 |
LHP Austin Gomber (COL) vs. RHP Michael McGreevy (STL)
The Cardinals need young pitching, and Michael McGreevey is a useful back-end arm. He has a six-pitch arsenal with lackluster stuff (90 Stuff+) but excellent command (112 Location+, 3.7% BB). It’s been a limited sample, but I think he can be an effective pitch-to-contact guy with a super-low barrel rate.
Is this the Austin Gomber revenge game?
The Rockies’ starter has allowed a .958 OPS across 75 head-to-head plate appearances against the Cardinals. However, he’s recently introduced a new pitch mix, presenting a half-decent cutter in favor of his useless fastball.
The Cardinals rank second among MLB lineups in wRC+ against southpaws over the past month. However, I still project their current lineup for a 98 wRC+ against the side.
For argument’s sake, I upgraded their lineup to a 107 wRC+ for Wednesday, and I still only project 8.11 runs for this total.
The afternoon start should help the Under, and the Cardinals are off Thursday and can deploy their bullpen as needed.
This game also fits one of our Action Labs Betting Systems:
Pick: Under 9 (-120 | Play to 8.5 -105)
Cubs vs. Blue Jays
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
RHP Cade Horton (CHC) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR)
Cubs starter Cade Horton is becoming a dependable mid-rotation arm (4.27 xERA, 4.41 xFIP, 10.4% K-BB, 96 Pitching+, 4.02 botERA). He has two good breaking pitches (114 Stuff+ Slider, 103 Stuff+ Curveball), and he could improve even more if he stopped throwing his fastball over half the time. He’s a decent ground-ball pitcher (47%) who can keep the ball in the park (0.79 HR/9 allowed), which is so key at Wrigley.
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman is still the better pitcher (3.62 xERA, 3.92 xFIP, 17.5% K-BB, 102 Pitching+, 3.03 botERA), but I slightly prefer Chicago’s bullpen and defense.
These are two comparable offenses, although the Cubs are in a slump.
Still, I project the Cubs ML at +102.
Pick: Cubs ML (+116 | Play to +110)
Red Sox vs. Astros
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -110o / -110u | -170 |
RHP Walker Buehler (BOS) vs. RHP Hunter Brown (HOU)
Astros starter Hunter Brown has been on a tear since August of last season (2.41 ERA, 3.05 xFIP, 21.1% K-BB). He’s turning into one of the sport’s best pitchers.
Red Sox starter Walker Buehler is shaky (5.46 xERA, 4.86 xFIP, 6.4% K-BB). However, he forces the Astros into their lesser offensive split, as they don’t hit right-handed pitching very well.
Both teams are off on Thursday, so both bullpens should be aggressively involved.
We also have a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate in Ryan Blankey (career 56% to the Under for a 7.9% ROI).
I project 7.3 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 8 (-108 | Play to -118)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, August 13
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- Cubs ML (+116 | Play to +110)
- Brewers vs. Pirates Under 7.5 (-106 | Play to -115)
- Rockies vs. Cardinals Under 9 (-120 | Play to 8.5 -105)
- Red Sox vs. Astros Under 8 (-108 | Play to -118)
