Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, May 14.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Brewers vs Guardians, Rays vs Blue Jays, Pirates vs Mets and Royals vs Astros. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Wednesday, May 14
Brewers vs. Guardians
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -118o / -102u | +110 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -118o / -102u | -135 |
Logan Henderson (MIL) vs. Gavin Williams (CLE)
We’re getting hitter-friendly weather in Cleveland for this 1 p.m. ET start, with 73-degree temps and seven MPH winds out toward left-center field.
We’re also getting two starting pitchers who allow plenty of fly-ball contact.
Milwaukee starter Logan Henderson posted a 93 Stuff+ mark in his MLB debut, throwing a 99 Stuff+ fastball or an 86 Stuff+ changeup around 93% of the time — he mixes in a cutter-slider mix the other 7%.
He posted solid numbers in Triple-A, including a 25% strikeout minus walk rate. Still, his heavy fly-ball tendency (averages around a 30% ground-ball rate) could lead to a home-run problem at this level — he allowed 1.1 homers per nine innings pitched in the Minors, but that should worsen in the Majors.
Guardians starter Gavin Williams is struggling with the smaller strike zone this season. His zone rate has dropped from 50.3% to 45.8% year over year, his xERA has jumped to 5.18, his botERA has jumped to 4.50, and his Location+ mark has dropped from 103 to 87 behind 23 walks in 37 innings.
He’s also getting hurt more on contact, as he’s already allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings pitched this year with a barrel rate over 10% and a sub-40% ground-ball rate.
All that said, I suspect Milwaukee’s lineup is due for some serious positive RISP regression after hitting 3-for-33 over the past 34 opportunities, stranding 34 baserunners in the process.
Pick: Brewers ML (+135 | Play to +122) | Over 8 (-115 | Play to 8.5 -110)
Rays vs. Blue Jays
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -110o / -110u | -160 |
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs. Chris Bassitt (TOR)
Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt is having a career season.
He’s throwing to better spots (107 Location+, compared to 97 last year) and getting hitters to chase more (32.3% O-Swing rate compared to 25.4% career, 11% swinging-strike rate compared to 9.2% career).
As such, his numbers have dropped considerably. He’s posted a 3.17 xERA, a 20.9% strikeout minus walk rate, a 3.20 xFIP and a 3.39 botERA, all career-bests.
Conversely, Rays starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot is struggling more this season. His xERA has ballooned to 4.40 (3.6 last year), his xFIP has jumped to 4.34 (4.05 last year), and his strikeout minus walk rate has dipped to 11.8% (17.4% last year).
I power rate Toronto slightly higher than Milwaukee in the batter’s box (14th vs. 17th in wRC+) and bullpen (3rd vs. 7th in xFIP, 1st vs. 12th in strikeout minus walk rate).
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-142 | Play to -155)
Pirates vs. Mets
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +105 | 8 -105o / -115u | +220 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 8 -105o / -115u | -275 |
Bailey Falter (PIT) vs. Clay Holmes (NYM)
We should have ugly weather at Citi Field on Wednesday, with 61-degree temps and double-digit winds swirling in from right field toward third base.
I project this total at 7.24 runs, compared to 7.98 on an average weather day in Queens.
Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes is turning into a borderline ace. He’s posted a 2.47 ERA, 3.06 xERA, and 3.41 xFIP behind a 15.7% strikeout minus walk rate and 53% ground-ball rate.
He’s added a kick-change (103 Stuff+) to his arsenal alongside his quality sinker (101 Stuff+) and slider (111 Stuff+).
The lone concern for him is durability. He’s never thrown more than 70 innings in a season, and he’s already at 43 — this is his first start on regular rest.
Pittsburgh’s lineup is bad, and it’s the second-worst MLB lineup on the road (71 wRC+).
I used to consider Bailey Falter a replacement-level arm, but he’s improved closer to a No. 4 starter this year (4.55 xFIP, 4.35 botERA, 10.4% strikeout minus walk rate, 4.40-to-4.60 projected FIP range).
Pick: Under 8 (-112 | Play to 7.5 +100)
Royals vs. Astros
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 8 -115o / -105u | -150 |
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) vs. Colton Gordon (HOU)
Astros starting pitcher Colton Gordon will make his MLB debut on Wednesday after posting a 3.94 xFIP and 20.6% strikeout minus walk rate in Triple-A. He’s the team’s No. 14 overall prospect after getting drafted in the 2021 eighth round out of UCF.
He’s a control pitcher with a plus slider and deceptive mechanics, including a low release point.
FIP projections put him in the 4.17-to-4.57 range, but the Stuff models are lower on him.
Royals starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has posted an above-average 13.5% strikeout minus walk rate, his best mark since 2019 (when he was a relief pitcher for Cincinnati).
He was lucky last season (3.31 ERA, 4.60 xERA, 4.95 xFIP, 5.10 botERA) but is pitching much better in 2025 (4.03 xERA, 4.20 xFIP, 4.37 botERA).
The Royals' offense has been unlucky this year, with MLB’s third-highest xwOBA differential (.292 actual vs. .316 expected; trails only White Sox and Pirates). Their bats should be due for positive regression on Wednesday, especially after their unlucky batted-ball result on Tuesday.
Pick: Royals ML (+123 | Play to +117)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, May 14
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- Brewers ML (+135 | Play to +122)
- Blue Jays ML (-142 | Play to -55)
- Royals ML (+123 | Play to +117)
- Brewers vs Guardians Over 8 (-115 | Play to 8.5 -110)
- Diamondbacks vs Giants Under 8 (-105 | Play to -115)
- White Sox vs Reds Over 9 (+100 | Play to -110)
- Pirates vs Mets Under 8 (-112 | Play to 7.5 +100)
- Marlins vs Cubs Under 8.5 (-122 | Play to 8 -112)
- Rockies vs Rangers Under 9 (-105 | Play to -110)
