MLB PrizePicks Props, Plays: 5 Picks, Including Joc Pederson & Clayton Kershaw (Tuesday, September 13)
Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
- With 17 games on Tuesday's MLB slate, there is plenty of value to be had in the player prop markets.
- Tony Sartori is diving into two late-night games, including Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks and Braves vs. Giants.
- Check out the five plays below, including one on Clayton Kershaw.
Tuesday's MLB slate features 17 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday's Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Jakob Junis Over 4 Strikeouts
We have the second matchup of this three-game series with the NL West's San Francisco Giants hosting the NL East's Atlanta Braves.
Right-hander Jakob Junis is slated to take the mound for San Francisco and should be a good candidate to back in the strikeout department.
Through 19 pitching appearances this season, Junis is 4-5 with a 3.98 ERA. Recording at least four strikeouts in six of his last eight games (75%), we should expect him to keep it going against Atlanta.
Since August 1, the Braves rank just 28th in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitchers. Through 64 career plate appearances against Junis, this current Atlanta roster possesses a mere .172 BA, .224 SLG, .212 wOBA and 28.1 K%.
We are getting a great number on this prop because of how good the Braves' lineup is. However, they strike out a lot. Looking at tonight's projected lineup, seven of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 23%.
Joc Pederson Hitter Fantasy Score Over 5
We are also backing a few San Francisco hitters in this game, as they are slated to go against right-hander Kyle Wright.
While he has had a strong year on the mound, Wright has struggled against the Giants. Through two career starts against them, he possesses a 7.11 ERA and 2.13 WHIP.
The first San Francisco hitter we are backing is Joc Pederson.
Pederson has quietly put together a strong season, posting a .267 BA, .521 SLG and .869 OPS through 117 games. We should expect him to keep it going against Wright.
Through five career at-bats against the Braves' right-hander, Pederson is 2-for-5 with a home run. When facing right-handed pitchers this season, he boasts a .275/.542/.898 slash line.
Wilmer Flores Hitter Fantasy Score Over 5
The other Giants hitter we are backing in this game is Wilmer Flores. While Flores is not having the strongest season, he should be able to put together a solid outing against Wright.
When facing right-handed pitchers this season, his numbers jump up by about 5% to a .235 BA, .425 SLG and .739 OPS. Through three career plate appearances against Wright, Flores is 2-for-3.
Projected to hit in the three-spot for this game, he should have plenty of opportunities to get over this short total.
Clayton Kershaw Over 6 Strikeouts
We have the second matchup of this three-game NL West series, with the Arizona Diamondbacks hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Taking the mound for the Dodgers is future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, who should be a good candidate to back in the strikeout department.
Recording at least six strikeouts in each of his two starts since returning from injury (back), he should be able to keep it going against Arizona. Since August 1, the Diamondbacks rank just 18th in the league in K% when facing left-handed pitchers.
A constant thorn in Arizona's side, Kershaw has dominated the Diamondbacks for many years. Over his last 17 starts against the Diamondbacks, he has collected at least six strikeouts 12 times (71%).
Through 134 career plate appearances against Kershaw, this current Arizona roster possesses a troubling 29.1 K%.
Merrill Kelly Over 5 Strikeouts
We are also backing Kershaw's counterpart in this outing: right-hander Merrill Kelly. Simply put, this total is disrespectful for someone of Kelly's caliber.
Through 28 starts this season, he is 12-5 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. We should not expect any regression, as he boasts a .279 xwOBA, .221 xBA and .350 xSLG.
Recording at least five strikeouts in each of his last 10 starts, he should be able to keep it going against the Dodgers. When facing right-handed pitching, Los Angeles ranks in the bottom half of the league since the beginning of August.
We are getting a good number here because of how good Los Angeles is, but Kelly should be able to keep the strikeouts coming in this matchup.
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