MLB PrizePicks Plays: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner & Shohei Ohtani (Tuesday, July 25)
Via Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on against the Baltimore Orioles at Citizens Bank Park on July 24, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
We have a stacked 15-game MLB slate on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Bryce Harper Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
Right-hander Kyle Gibson is slated to take the mound for Baltimore and should be a good fade candidate in this matchup. Through 21 starts, he possesses a 4.76 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
Not only are those poor surface-level stats, but his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely. Entering this game, Gibson ranks in the 33rd percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
Bryce Harper is the first Philadelphia hitter to back against Gibson. While the home run ball has not been there for Harper this season, the newly-appointed first baseman is still putting together a solid performance at the plate.
Through 67 games, he boasts a .293 BA, .406 SLG and .792 OPS. Harper's underlying metrics are even stronger, generating a .462 xSLG and .361 xwOBA.
When facing right-handed pitching since 2021, he boasts a .316 BA, .592 SLG and 1.005 OPS.
Trea Turner Fantasy Score More Than 8
Trea Turner is the other Phillies hitter to back against the Orioles and Gibson.
While it has been a tumultuous season for Turner, he enters this matchup in good form. Over his past 10 games, he possesses a .275 BA, .425 SLG and .766 OPS.
Turner's career numbers against Gibson are not the best, going 2-8 with a double and a single. However, over those eight at-bats, he produced a .344 xBA, .577 xSLG and .390 xwOBA.
Taylor Ward Fantasy Score More Than 7
We are catching some solid numbers on a few Los Angeles hitters because left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez is slated to take the mound for Detroit. Rodriguez has put together an excellent campaign, posting a 2.69 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. His underlying metrics don't quite stack up to those stellar numbers, but they are strong nonetheless.
So, why back Taylor Ward in this game?
Through seven career plate appearances against Rodriguez, he boasts a .286 BA, .429 SLG and .306 wOBA. Across those seven at-bats, Ward produced a .489 xBA, .721 xSLG and .528 xwOBA.
Ward also enters this contest in great form, surpassing this number in each of his past four games while averaging 16.5 fantasy points over that span.
Shohei Ohtani Fantasy Score More Than 8
Superstar Shohei Ohtani is the other Angels hitter worth backing today. Any excuse to back the league's best player is good for me, and in this case, it's because he has homered off Rodriguez before.
The clear frontrunner for AL MVP, Ohtani boasts a .302 BA, .674 SLG and 1.072 OPS. His underlying metrics are just ridiculous across the board, ranking in the 99th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, xwOBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
Ohtani has cleared this number in four of his past five games, averaging 10.4 fantasy points over that stretch. He is live to homer every night, and I would not be shocked if he does so once again in this matchup.