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MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Strikeout Totals to Bet for Michael Wacha and Brady Singer (Monday, September 5)

MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Strikeout Totals to Bet for Michael Wacha and Brady Singer (Monday, September 5) article feature image
Credit:

Ed Zurga/Getty Images. Pictured: Brady Singer #51 of the Kansas City Royals.

Happy Labor Day!

Labor Day is a baseball holiday, and we can celebrate by trading bases all day.

Make sure you add these two +EV pitcher props to your card, courtesy of our internal Action Labs projections.

Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.

Michael Wacha Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-165)

Red Sox at Rays
First Pitch 4:10 p.m. ET
Best Line BetMGM

It’s been a dramatic turnaround for Michael Wacha, who has developed from one of the worst pitchers in baseball to — at the minimum — serviceable. He was a pretty good pitcher back in St. Louis, but he put up some wildly awful numbers and hilariously bad batted-ball statistics in Tampa Bay.

Image via BASEBALL SAVANT.

But then Wacha started to turn it around. He has made substantial improvements in his batted-ball statistics combined with a slight increase in his ground-ball rate.

Wacha’s changeup has been particularly impressive this season. It’s a very interesting pitch, mostly mirroring his fastball but can play in three different directions based on his grip.

All-in-all, it’s worked, having accumulated a -7 Run Value on the pitch this season.

michael wacha's changeup in 2022:

.161 batting average against (5th), .210 slugging (4th), and a 21.7% hard hit rate (3rd). by run value/100, wacha has the 3rd best changeup in all of major league baseball.

it certainly looked that filthy last night. pic.twitter.com/j2Huf9RG8L

— Red Sox Gifs (@soxgifs) August 15, 2022

That’s the pitch he’s going to have to lean on to cash for us today, because the Rays rank 22nd in Weighted Changeup Runs Created (-1.2).

We know the Rays are strikeout-happy, reporting the sixth-highest strikeout rate (24.1%) against RHPs this season. Wacha managed six strikeouts over just 93 pitches during his last time out against Tampa Bay.

Wacha has also eclipsed this 3.5-strikeout line in six of his last seven starts and in four straight. He’s picked up 26 strikeouts in his last four starts alone.

Plus, projections love Wacha today:

  • Action Labs Player Props Tool4.8 strikeouts
  • FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 4.5 strikeouts
  • Stokastic’s Player Props Tool: 4.5 strikeouts

The juice is a little heavy, but it’s worth betting on Wacha today.

Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-165)

Action Labs Grade: 8/10


Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+125)

Guardians at Royals
First Pitch 8:10 p.m. ET
Best Line DraftKings

I love getting Brady Singer at plus-money on this prop. He’s been remarkably consistent atop the Royals rotation.

Singer’s ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP all sit between 3.29 and 3.81. He’s accumulated 2.2 fWAR this season, posted a 7-4 record, and struck out at least five batters in 12 of his last 15 starts.

Singer throws a  sinker-slider combo about 90% of the time. His sinker doesn’t produce strikeouts, but his slider plays so well off that sinker that he’s produced a 35.6% Whiff rate on his secondary pitch.

Brady Singer's sinker/slider combo (3-part video)

1: Why would Ji-Man Choi swing at this slider for Strike 3?

2: Because the pitch before, Singer threw a 94 mph sinker that also started at Choi's knee but broke 14" inches onto the corner

3: Sinker ➡️ slider sequence overlaid pic.twitter.com/72ZTktef4R

— David Adler (@_dadler) July 24, 2022

The Guardians rank 15th in Weighted Slider Runs Created and 13th in Weighted Sinker Runs Created. The lineup has combined for a -9.3 Run Value on the two pitches.

But the Guardians’ ability to hit those pitches isn’t what scares me. The Guardians never strike out: More than that, the Guardians boast the lowest strikeout rate (17.5%) against RHPs in MLB.

Luis Arraez has been particularly astounding, making contact on almost 94% of pitches seen this season, which leads all of MLB. His bat-to-ball skills might be the best in MLB.

Luis Arraez is an under the radar, high quality contact hitter with great on base skills.

Since his MLB debut in 2019:
.374 OBP
.338 wOBA
92.9 Zone Contact%
9.6 Whiff%

Low risk, consistent bat.#Twins #FantasyBaseball
pic.twitter.com/wJnIGpNyL6

— DataBase Hit (@DatabaseHit) March 5, 2022

But Singer took the Guardians for five strikeouts over 100 pitches last time out, producing a 30% CSW rate on the pitch. And the projections show value with this number.

  • The Action Network’s Player Props Tool: 4.9 strikeouts
  • Stokastic’s Player Props Tool: 5.3 strikeouts

At plus-money, Singer’s strikeouts is my favorite MLB player prop for Labor Day.

Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+125)

Action Labs Grade: 8/10

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