MLB Props Bets & Predictions: Fade Carlos Rodón & Kyle Wright on Strikeout Totals (April 15)
Getty Images. Pictured: San Francisco Giants pitcher Carlos Rodón.
- Our MLB analyst uses the Action Labs Player Prop tool to break down the two best prop bets for Friday.
- There's value on two MLB pitcher strikeout totals to both go under.
- Check out Tanner McGrath's analysis and picks below.
After a 2-1 showing on Thursday, our team is back on the right track when it comes to player props in Major League Baseball.
There are two more pitchers who show value on Friday’s slate. However, instead of buying pitchers, we’re selling them on the latest card.
Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Carlos Rodón — Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
|Giants vs. Guardians||Giants ML (-150)|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
This line is too high.
Rodón is a great pitcher, and he’s going to be a huge part of what the Giants do this season. However, this number is inflated from his monster five inning, 12-strikeout performance against the Marlins six days ago.
Miami is a strikeout-prone team. Cleveland is not, finishing last year 16th in strikeout rate (23.9%) and ranking 17th through the first week of the season.
Moreover, the Guardians’ lineup has been overwhelming in the early season. Jose Ramirez is fully buying into his new contract, and Steven Kwam has unleashed his smart bat and control of the strike zone on the league.
Carlos Rodón's 10th, 11th and 12th Ks.
Over 5 innings. 😳 pic.twitter.com/7HBmpL4TLP
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 9, 2022
As a result, the Guardians are fourth in wRC+ (154) and first in walk rate (7.2%) through the first week of the season. Plus, it’s not like Rodón is Jacob deGrom. He went over this line in 16 of 26 starts last season,but stayed under in nine of his last 10 games.
Again, this line is hyperinflated from a major opening start. Our Action Labs projections mark him for just 6.3 strikeouts, giving us nearly a 12% edge over the line DraftKings is offering.
Pick: Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Kyle Wright — Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
|Braves vs. Padres||Padres ML (-110)|
|First Pitch||9:40 p.m. ET|
I don’t think there’s any reason to trust Wright in this spot.
The pitcher is young and just made his first big league start this season. That was against Cincinnati, where he struck out six over six shutout innings.
The Padres roasted Charlie Morton on Thursday, putting up seven runs on the experienced pitcher and holding him under 5.5 strikeouts. I think San Diego will do the same thing in this meeting.
Wright has never been a shutdown, strikeout pitcher. Since graduating from Rookie ball to High-A, Wright has eclipsed the 9.00 K/9 mark just once in a season. Otherwise, he’s good for less than a strikeout per inning.
Wright mostly pitches to contact, and the Padres will gladly hit for contact. Last season, San Diego posted the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in MLB, and the Pads are on pace for the 12th-lowest number in early 2022.
And if Wright tries to work in the zone instead of getting guys to chase — as I expect him to — the Padres will make him pay. Through the frist seven games, the Padres are fourth in zone contact rate (82.5%), trailing low-strikeout teams like the Pirates, Blue Jays and Astros.
Our Action Labs Projections mark Wright for just four strikeouts and FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 4.4 Ks. Either way, there’s value in fading him.
Pick: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10