MLB Player Props & Picks Sunday | Luis Gil, Jack Flaherty, Tanner Houck (April 7)
For the third day in a row, we are going to be targeting three men on the mound as they offer some of the biggest edges on the board.
We went 5-1 over the last two days, with Carlos Carrasco going over his total for the first time in two years being the lone loss during that span.
So, let's end the week on a high note as we dive into our MLB player props and picks for Sunday, April 7.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, April 7
We have not seen very much of Luis Gil, as he's only made eight career starts. However, the 25-year-old fireballer earned the fifth spot in the rotation with a fantastic spring, and he continued his success in his first start of the season against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Gil fired four-plus innings of one-run ball while allowing just one hit, walking three, and striking out six. His six strikeouts are essential to note as he went over his total of 5.5 that day against the lineup that has the lowest strikeout rate in the majors.
For his second start of the year, the line is a whole strikeout higher, and he faces a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that is an entire strikeout higher. Gil has not yet proven to have his line priced this high.
In his eight career starts, we've only seen him surpass this number twice, and both times came in 2021. His opportunity to go over this number is also limited by his walk rate.
Gil has walked multiple batters in six of eight starts, which drives up his pitch count and gets him out of the game early. Against a veteran Blue Jays lineup, we should expect all these trends to continue as he goes under this afternoon.
Lastly, according to our Action Labs projections, the under is one of the top plays, with Gil slated for just five strikeouts.
Pick: Luis Gil Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
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The fade train keeps chugging along, with the next stop being Detriot. Here, we're looking at a revitalized Jack Flaherty. The former St. Louis Cardinals ace has looked as good as ever in Tigers blue and orange, but his strikeout total today is getting too much love.
Flaherty kicked off his 2024 campaign by striking out seven Chicago White Sox over six innings of work. Just like Gil above, he went over his total and now has a slightly better matchup, so his total is set a strikeout higher than his last outing.
However, we need to see more from Flaherty before we determine that he is back. Even against the lowly Oakland A's, who have the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors coming into this matchup.
Overall, Flaherty has gone under this total in 85% of his starts over the last two seasons. The implied odds of -567 support our strong Action Labs projection on this under, as they have him pegged for just six strikeouts today.
Pick: Jack Flaherty Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Last but certainly not least, we head out west to Anaheim, where Tanner Houck will take the ball for the Boston Red Sox. Houck is another guy who had a great outing to start the year and is getting too much support.
Houck began the season by punching out 10 A's in six innings of work. Now we know how bad the A's are, and Houck has a slightly tougher matchup today against the Angels, who have the eighth-highest team strikeout rate.
We have multiple reasons to expect sizable regression from Houck in this outing. The first being is that he is not an elite strikeout pitcher. His strikeout rate of 21.4% ranked in just the 34th percentile last season.
Secondly, that below-average strikeout rate led to him going under this 77% of the time in his 21 starts last season. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -335 that he will go under again today.
Lastly, we have projections on our side, as Action Labs has Houck projected for just 5.5 strikeouts this afternoon.
Pick: Tanner Houck Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145)
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