MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Cody Bellinger, Michael Kopech, Justin Verlander (Friday, August 11)
Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Verlander
Today, a pair of interleague matchups have my attention as the Cubs head to Toronto to battle the Blue Jays and the Brewers visit the White Sox. In a game started by Javier Assad and Jose Berrios, there could be fireworks with a pair of potent offenses. In this one, I will be backing Cody Bellinger.
Michael Kopech will get the start for the White Sox and he may have trouble finding the strike zone against a patient Brewers team.
One of the biggest acquisitions at the trade deadline was the Astros re-acquiring Justin Verlander. Meanwhile, the Angels made several moves, but have struggled mightily since. Will Verlander be able to take advantage?
MLB Player Props For Friday, August 11
In the final game of the Cubs' series against the Mets, Cody Bellinger went hitless to snap a 10-game hitting streak. However, Bellinger has a hit in 13 of his last 15 games. In August, Bellinger is hitting .441 with two home runs and 10 runs batted in. He has raised his batting average to .327 in the process.
With his hot start to the month, Bellinger has an RBI in seven of his last nine games. The Cubs are 6-3 this month and are averaging seven runs per game.
Tonight, Bellinger gets Jose Berrios, who has been solid this season with a 3.38 ERA. Bellinger has a single and walk against him in two plate appearances. An RBI single can cash this over, but Bellinger can also get a sacrifice fly or RBI groundout.
Bellinger will likely bat third or fourth in the Cubs lineup. If one of his teammates gets on base and sets the table, Bellinger will be in position to drive him in.
Pick: Bellinger Over 0.5 RBI (+100)
When it comes to walks props, I generally prefer 1.5 as a line with the expectation that the pitcher will have five or six innings to issue two walks. Then there are pitchers like Michael Kopech for whom the line does not matter as much.
According to Statcast, Kopech ranks in the third percentile in walk rate. He has issued 67 walks in just 107 2/3 innings, which comes after he walked 57 batters in 119 1/3 innings last year.
Kopech has walked three batters in seven of his last eight starts. In six of those starts, he has walked four or more batters. His last two starts came against a Cleveland lineup that ranks 24th in walk rate against right-handers. However, Kopech still issued nine walks in 10 1/3 innings against them.
Tonight, he faces a Brewers lineup that ranks fifth in walk rate against right-handed pitchers. Christian Yelich leads the Brewers with 55 walks and has drawn five in his last seven games. He often bats leadoff, and if he draws a walk in the first inning, it will make Kopech uncomfortable early on.
If Kopech struggles with his command early, it will not take long for him to walk three batters. He is averaging just over five innings per start. If Kopech pitches at least five innings tonight, it would be a surprise if he did not issue at least three walks.
Pick: Michael Kopech Over 2.5 Walks (-140)
Tonight, Justin Verlander will make his first start in Houston since the trade. In his first start back with the club, he took the loss against the Yankees. He was outdueled by Nestor Cortes Jr., who struck out eight in four innings in his own return to the Yankees rotation.
However, Verlander was not too shabby himself as he allowed seven hits and two earned runs in seven innings.
The seven innings are important here, as he will have to pitch at least five to qualify for the win. That should not be an issue since he has pitched five innings in 16 of 17 starts this season.
The lone exception came against Atlanta in June, and that start was the last time Verlander allowed four runs or more to a team besides Houston — a team he will not have to worry about anymore as an opponent this season.
Verlander is 4-2 with a 1.82 ERA over his last seven starts. If he pitches five innings, I am expecting that the Astros will be leading since Reid Detmers is starting for the Angels.
Detmers has an 8.60 ERA in his last five starts, allowing seven runs twice in that span. He also has allowed eight runs in 11 innings in his two starts against the Astros this season. One of those games was the wild 13-12 Angels comeback victory just after the All-Star break.
With Verlander opposing him tonight, I do not expect an offensive outburst from the Angels, particularly if he keeps Shohei Ohtani in the yard. That should help Verlander pick up a win tonight.
Pick: Justin Verlander To Record A Win (+135)
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