MLB Player Prop Picks, Predictions, Odds for Logan Allen, Quinn Priester (Monday, July 24)
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Quinn Priester
- Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Monday, July 24, including picks for Logan Allen and Quinn Priester.
- Now is a pretty good time to sell high on Logan Allen. He put up eight strikeouts over five shutout innings against the Pirates five days ago.
- The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Priester for exactly three strikeouts today, so there’s some value on the Under 3.5 line.
Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Monday, July 24, including picks for Logan Allen and Quinn Priester.
MLB Player Props For Monday, July 24
Logan Allen under 5.5 strikeouts (+115)
|Guardians vs. Royals|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
Now is a pretty good time to sell high on Logan Allen. He put up eight strikeouts over five shutout innings against the Pirates five days ago, but the underlying performance wasn’t that pretty.
For example, Allen’s fastball velocity was down a tick, sitting 90-91. As a result, he induced only two whiffs on 37 fastballs.
Allen’s stuff hasn’t been there for a few starts. In seven starts between April and May, Allen posted a 13.6% Swinging-Strike rate. That number is down to 10.4% in the seven starts since.
The culprit seems to be his sweeper, which has generated zero swinging strikes in three of his past five starts (88 total thrown).
Predictably, Allen stayed under 5.5 strikeouts in eight of nine starts before his last outing.
Allen did head back to Triple-A for two starts at the beginning of July, so perhaps he’s reworking some stuff or nursing a small injury. He still only generated six strikeouts across six innings at that level, so I’m not sure that matters.
So, the start against Pittsburgh feels like an anomaly — the exception to Allen’s recent performance.
Allen’s final MLB start before getting sent down came against the Royals, his opponent today. Kansas City is a strikeout-happy team but ground Allen down, making him throw 98 pitches across 3 ⅔ innings.
Ultimately, Allen finished with five strikeouts but also managed a measly 21.4% CSW rate.
I can’t imagine Allen improving upon his last performance against this team with how he’s trending, and I’m betting he’s overvalued after a lucky start against Pittsburgh.
The projections are unanimous that Allen is overvalued. Here’s what the models have for Allen’s strikeouts on Monday:
- The Action Labs Player Props Tool: 5.2 Ks
- BallParkPal Pitcher Simulations: 5.7 Ks
- RotoWire Player Projections: 4.8 Ks
- Jon Anderson’s Daily Pitcher Projections: 4.9 Ks
The plus-money price for Under 5.5 Ks is killer value.
Pick: Under 5.5 Ks (+115)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Quinn Priester under 3.5 strikeouts (-130)
|Pirates vs. Padres|
|First Pitch||9:40 p.m. ET|
Quinn Priester began his MLB career with his best Chuck Morton impression.
9 up, 9 down for Quinn Priester and Endy Rodriguez
8 of the 9 outs have been groundouts pic.twitter.com/S4YD9qIoFb
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 18, 2023
He then promptly blew up, allowing seven earned runs over the next 16 Guardians faced.
Priester has some solid breaking pitches, as the Stuff+ model graded his slider (123) and curveball (108) well in his debut.
But Priester also has a lousy fastball that’s lost velocity since he was drafted (18th overall in 2019). His sinker is the better pitch, but he didn’t locate it well in his MLB debut, so it got shelled.
Look at how many of those sinkers went middle-middle. What did you expect, Quinn?
Priester finished the game with two strikeouts on seven whiffs across 73 pitches and 5 ⅓ innings.
We likely shouldn’t expect such a poor performance again, but what is Priester’s upside?
He had 84 strikeouts in 87 ⅓ Triple-A innings this year. Is it fair to project him with fewer than 7.0 K/9 in the bigs?
I’m willing to test that hypothesis on the road against the Padres, who have the second-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past month (17.8%) and held Detroit’s Alex Faedo and Matt Manning to a combined four strikeouts over the weekend.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Priester for exactly three strikeouts today, so there’s some value on the Under 3.5 line.
Pick: Under 3.5 Ks (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10