MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Paul Goldschmidt & Jose Berrios (Wednesday, June 14)
Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Berrios (Blue Jays)
Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Wednesday, June 14, including picks for Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Berrios.
MLB Player Props For Wednesday, June 14
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
|Cardinals vs. Giants|
|First Pitch||1:15 p.m. ET|
Goldschmidt: Giant Killer.
It's likely unfair to say that, as Goldschmidt destroys every team he faces. But things are different when he plays San Francisco, as in more disastrous for his opponent.
In his career, Goldschmidt has a .303/.410/.556 slash line against the Giants, having racked up 316 bases across 160 games. That's pretty good.
But it gets wilder.
Dating back to the beginning of last season, Goldschmidt is slashing .396/.448/.830 with a 1.278 OPS against the Giants. He's picked up 44 bases in 13 games on the back of 13 extra-base hits.
So, predictably, Goldy has hit his bases prop in 10 of his past 13 games against the Giants, good for a 77% hit rate that would imply -333 odds to the over.
And he has a great matchup on Wednesday.
Goldschmidt is 17-for-30 lifetime off Giants starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani, including 10 extra-base hits and only three strikeouts. He's racked up a 92.8 mph avg. EV and a 20.6-degree avg. Launch Angle, projecting a .870 xSLG and a .565 xwOBA.
Listen to the Giants' broadcast talk about the Goldy-Tony Disco matchup in this at-bat, which predictably ended in a homer.
Giants broadcast calls Paul Goldschmidt's 1st-inning home run
— VHS (@VanHicklestein) April 27, 2023
Ownage is ownage.
RotoWire is projecting 1.9 total bases for Goldschmidt today, providing us plenty of value on the over 1.5 provided at plus money.
But don't be surprised if he goes 3-for-4 with a few extra-base hits, considering he always does so against the Giants.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)
|Blue Jays @ Orioles|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
The great conundrum of Berrios is if he's actually really good or really bad.
The naysayers will point towards his lackluster batted-ball profile and relatively high xERA (4.57). The Berrios believers will point towards his steadily increasing strikeout and ground-ball rates.
I'll stick to the latter for today's analysis.
Berrios' ground-ball rate is approaching 50% for the first time in his career (49.1% in 2023, 41.6% career), so he's getting more outs that way.
Meanwhile, Berrios' swinging-strike rate is up a tad from last year (11.8%), so his strikeout rate has risen about 3%. He hasn't reached the same level of strikeout success that he had in Minnesota, but he's performing much better than he did last season.
Berrios is primarily throwing a sinker-slurve mix, two pitches with a combined 118 Stuff+ rating. These two pitches explain everything about Berrios' success this year.
First, Berrios throws the sinker early (31.3% early-count strike rate) to force ground balls (60% GB rate).
Then Berrios throws the slurve to put away batters. The pitch boasts a whopping 14.1% swinging-strike rate this season and a 25.9% put-away rate — the latter statistic would rank above the 80th percentile of batters.
Altogether, Berrios has eclipsed 4.5 Ks in nine of 13 starts this season, good for a whopping 69% hit rate that implies -225 odds to the over.
The Orioles boast a great lineup that rarely strikes out. However, the O's have been slipping lately, posting MLB's ninth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (23.6%) and allowing six of the past eight opposing starting pitchers to cash their strikeout props.
Remember, the O's are likely without Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle for the next stretch, creating a huge hole in the middle of the lineup.
So, I'm happy to back the controversial Berrios against the slumping Orioles, and I'm even more inclined when considering the projection models:
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 5.5 Ks
- RotoWire Prop Projections: 5.4 Ks
- BallParkPal's Starting Pitcher Simulations: 4.6 Ks
I think Berrios cruises to five or more strikeouts on Wednesday, and I'm willing to bet on that.