MLB Same-Game Parlay for Tuesday: How to Bet Marlins vs Phillies (September 6)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola
- The Marlins and Phillies are the target of Tuesday's same-game parlay.
- Philadelphia's and Aaron Nola's dominance over Miami is key to the parlay.
- Tanner McGrath breaks down each leg of the SGP, which pays 2-1.
Marlins vs Phillies Odds
|Over/Under||7 (-104 / -118)|
|Time||6:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Super Tuesday is a big deal in Major League Baseball as all 30 teams suit up and take the field this evening.
With so much value on the board, it’s the perfect opportunity to find some extra value. One of the best ways to do that is through a Same-Game Parlay.
When betting an SGP, I’m looking to find a game I can easily craft a game script with. For this Marlins-Phillies game, I see Aaron Nola shutting down the Marlins in a lengthy start.
FanDuel’s SGP feature allows you to pick alternate lines for things like strikeouts and totals, and I’m taking advantage of those features for this play.
The Parlay (+198):
- Philadelphia Phillies ML (-235)
- Aaron Nola 6+ Strikeouts (-720)
- Under 6.5 (-106)
Same-Game Parlay – Marlins vs Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-235)
The Marlins are in free fall, having written off the season and now being in jeopardy to fall short of their season win total.
The Phillies are in the middle of a Wild Card race, currently holding the third NL Wild Card spot by two games over Milwaukee. One of the ways they’ve gotten there is by beating up on the Marlins.
The Phillies have won four of their last five matchups with Miami, beating the Fish by a total score of 22-7. As the Phillies heat up for the final stretch and the Marlins fight for draft picks, this could only get uglier.
It also helps that the Marlins are starting southpaw Jesus Luzardo. The Phillies have posted a 143 wRC+ against LHPs over the past month, good for third in baseball.
In the meantime, I wouldn’t expect the Marlins to score on Nola in this one (more on that later).
Under 6.5 (-106)
However, Luzardo has been superb in his starts this season since returning from injury. He’s now pitched 65 1/3 innings over 12 starts with a 3.44 ERA. Plus, his 3.04 xERA indicates further positive regression.
I think Nola is one of the best pitchers in the National League. He’s pitched more innings than any pitcher in baseball save Sandy Alcantara, and Nola has done so with a 3.43 ERA while accumulating 4.8 fWAR. However, his xERA sits at 2.71 and his xFIP sits at 2.87, also indicating more positive regression.
Nola also gets to face the Marlins. Miami has put together a cumulative .572 OPS and a 65 wRC+ over the past month, with the team hitting .191 as a whole. This offense is lifeless.
The #marlins have a .585 OPS in the month of August. That’s already the worst such mark in a single month in franchise history. They’ve hit a collective .198 as a team.
— Louis Addeo-Weiss (@addeo_louis00) August 31, 2022
And if this line seems low, remember that the Marlins have scored just seven runs over the last five games against the Phillies. It’s the reason that the Phillies and Marlins have fallen short of this total in their last four meetings.
Aaron Nola 6+ Strikeouts (-720)
The juice is heavy on this one, but it’s worth paying a little bit extra for our SGP.
Let me explain.
If you buy the extra 2.5 strikeouts, you’re essentially getting a lock. Nola has struck out six or more in 20 of his 26 starts this season and 19 of his last 23.
Nola has also faced Miami four times since the start of 2021. He’s picked up at least six strikeouts in all four starts, having struck out exactly six twice. If you include his other two starts, Nola has struck out 33 total Marlins in 26 innings with a 33% CSW rate.
The Marlins have also allowed the last three opposing pitchers they’ve faced to record at least six strikeouts, with Max Fried, Bryce Elder and Charlie Morton all finishing with exactly six on the dot.
I feel much more comfortable playing Nola at six strikeouts given the historical trends. While I don’t feel comfortable playing it as a straight-up play, it’s a good lynchpin to add to an SGP.