The Athletics host the Seattle Mariners on May 25, 2026. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SEAM.
The Mariners are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Athletics are -102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 10.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mariners vs Athletics prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mariners vs Athletics Prediction
- Mariners vs Athletics Pick: Athletics ML (-115 or Better)
My Mariners vs Athletics best bet is on the Athletics to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Athletics Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 10.5 -110o / -110u | -116 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 10.5 -110o / -110u | -102 |
- Mariners vs Athletics moneyline: Mariners -116, Athletics -102
- Mariners vs Athletics over/under: 10.5 (-110 / -110)
- Mariners vs Athletics spread: Mariners -1.5 (+132), Athletics +1.5 (-160)
Mariners vs Athletics Probable Pitchers
| Luis Castillo (RHP, SEA) | Stat | Aaron Civale (RHP, ATH) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | W-L | 5-1 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 6.41 / 5.53 | ERA / xERA | 3.31 / 4.90 |
| 4.51 / 4.28 | FIP / xFIP | 4.90 / 4.78 |
| 13.6% | K-BB% | 9.4% |
| 35.2% | GB% | 28.6% |
| .346 | BABIP | .292 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 110 | Location+ | 111 |
Mariners vs Athletics MLB Betting Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
Father time comes for us all, and it appears that at the age of 33, Luis Castillo is hitting a bit of a wall. He's been wildly ineffective thus far in 2026, pitching to a 6.41 ERA, and now he's been pegged as an opening pitcher for Seattle who will need a bulk reliever to piggyback his start.
The man for the job, which he hopes won't be too difficult given Castillo's start, is Bryce Miller. He's begun the year on a high note, pitching 11 innings of two-run ball, but he allowed eight hits in his first go around in Houston before allowing just one at home to the White Sox in his last start.
Miller was kind of a disaster last season, and unlike most Mariners pitchers, he didn't find much reprieve when pitching at home. His 5.80 ERA in Seattle was actually worse than his 5.56 road ERA, and he somehow managed to allow more homers at T-Mobile Park than in his away starts to boot.
The righty struggled to limit the well-struck balls against him, pitching to a 48.6% hard-hit rate, and that led to an ugly .274 xBA and .463 Expected Slugging, which was 55 points worse than average. He did struggle a bit with walks last year, which is unusual for him, and it didn't exactly help him transform into a solid strikeout arm. He continued to give up a bunch of contact in the air — a popular strategy in Seattle — but his 22.1% PullAir% was poor, and for his career, he's two points worse than average at 16.8%.
Miller has produced more fly balls this season, despite pitching to grounders on rehab, and in both of his first two starts, he's been heavily skewed towards contact in the air.
Athletics Betting Preview
The Athletics will counter with one of my favorite pitchers to handicap, Aaron Civale.
You know in this day and age that everyone and their mother is looking at the same data, and everyone will open up Civale's profile on Baseball Savant to a smattering of dark blue circles. We like to take blue circle discounts around here, and we did so with great success the last time I wrote up a Civale start, when he took out the San Francisco Giants just over a week ago.
Even in that start, Civale gave up two home runs, and last time out, he gave up three. That's because there's just nobody in the league pitching to fly balls like Civale. His 71% rate of contact through the air ranks 21st among all qualified pitchers, coming in 15 points higher than the league average, but his .216 xBA on fly balls ranks 19th-best among the 124 pitchers to face at least 30 batters.
Considering the league average xBA on fly balls is up six points to .258 this year, and Civale's .709 xSLG on fly balls is 80 points lower than average, we have no choice but to respect the job the veteran has done on contact.
He may pitch in a homer-friendly park to a lot of scary-looking contact, but a two-degree uptick in launch angle seems to have helped Civale turn a lot of those barrels into catchable fly balls. Civale stood with a .241 xAB and .807 xSLG on fly balls last year, but it would at least seem in this 10-start offering that the righty can defy his expected numbers and continue pitching to a respectable ERA.
Mariners vs Athletics Pick, Betting Analysis
This is where the fun begins for Civale.
The Mariners not only play in a brutal park for home runs, but also hold the ninth-highest fly ball rate in the league. They sit 10th and 11th in xBA and xSLG on fly balls, respectively, and against fly-ball pitchers, they own the ninth-worst OPS in the league.
Now, some of that could be some bad luck. After all, the Mariners' expected slugging is around 1o0 points higher than their actual mark, but that's what comes with hitting so many fly balls in a bad park for that kind of approach. Civale is an expert at securing flyouts, and he'll draw a team with a weak .153 Isolated Power over the last two weeks, which is hitting just .212 in that span.
The Athletics have been experiencing an even greater power outage, but they're hitting .247 with a low 20.8% strikeout rate in the same time.
A sustained level of contact and traffic on the basepaths should beat out a swing-for-the-fences approach, particularly considering the man on the mound for the Athletics will be licking his chops at a team that looks to elevate.
Pick: Athletics ML (-115 or Better)
