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Thursday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Angels-Astros, Mariners-Athletics

Credit:

Brent Strom, Martin Maldonado and Justin Verlander. Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

  • Sharps are betting two MLB games on Thursday, headlined by Los Angeles Angels-Houston Astros (8:10 p.m. ET), with Houston listed as a -254 favorite with an over/under of 7.5
  • Wiseguys are also betting Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics (10:05 p.m. ET), with Oakland listed as a -142 favorite and an over/under of 8.5

Wiseguys stayed hot on Wednesday, cashing the Orioles (-110) and Pirates (+149) en route to a 2-1 night (+1.4 units). With a small Thursday board, sharps will stay selective and look to extend their winning streak to four consecutive days.

After analyzing Thursday’s 10-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 8:10 p.m. and 10:05 p.m. ET.


>> All data as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App or check out our MLB live odds page to get real-time data and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Full Sports Betting Glossary


Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

  • Sharp angle: Under 7.5
  • First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET

Public bettors see a stacked Astros lineup at home with a low total and can’t lay off the over. But wiseguys are taking advantage of a rare contrarian under opportunity with Justin Verlander (2.72 ERA) on the mound.

Despite 76% of bets taking the over, the total has fallen from 8 to 7.5. Why would oddsmakers drop the total to hand out a better number for public over backers?

Because sharps came in hard on the under, creating big liability. Pros at Pinnacle and Heritage hit the under 8, then sharps at GTBets hammered the under 7.5.

The fact that Goodfellas still hit the under even though it fell is evidence of supreme confidence.

An added bonus: The roof is closed in Houston. Since 2005, the under has produced +72.89 units in domes and closed-roof stadiums.


>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest MLB conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.


Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

  • Sharp angle: Under 8.5
  • First pitch: 10:05 p.m. ET

We’re seeing a classic pros vs. Joes disagreement with this AL West total. Currently 66% of bets are taking the over, but 52% of dollars are on the under.

Despite the heavy public over betting, the total has remained frozen at 8.5, and the juice has moved from 8.5 over -116 to 8.5 over -110, indicating under liability.

Sharps at BetOnline and Carib hammered the Under 8.5, triggering a pair of reverse line moves.

The under also matches the profitable Bet Labs system Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+187.00 units since 2005).

 


All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.

Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.

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