MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Indians-Astros, 2 Other Sunday Games
Cleveland Indians first baseman Carlos Santana. Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games on Sunday, headlined by Indians-Astros (7:05 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Padres-Nationals (1:35 p.m. ET) and Orioles-Twins (2:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Happy Sunday Funday! Wiseguys woke up early, got down hard and now they’re heading to Home Depot and maybe even Bed, Bath and Beyond, if there’s time. When the significant other isn’t looking, Goodfellas will be firing up the Action App and sweating their plays all day long.
>> All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Full Sports Betting Glossary
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals
1:35 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Padres (moved from +110 to -120)
The public is somewhat undecided on this Sunday afternoon matinee. But wiseguys have taken a clear position.
Jeremy Hellickson and the Nats opened as moderate -130 home favorites. Currently 56% of bets are grabbing the plus-money with the Padres, indicating a slight public lean. However, this line has plummeted away from Washington (-130 to +111) and toward San Diego (+110 to -120).
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move more than a few cents based on relatively even betting. Anytime you see a huge move like this (when the percentages aren’t very lopsided) it’s clear that sharps are responsible.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked three big steam moves on the Fathers. Sharps crushed the Pads at +113, +100 and -116. This overload of smart money from pro bettors forced oddsmakers to adjust the line bigly toward San Diego, flipping it from a dog to favorite.
Joe West is also behind the plate. Since 2005, home teams have lost -19.57 units with Cowboy Joe calling balls and strikes.
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
2:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (line freeze at 9)
One look at the two starting pitchers and that’s all the public needs to know. Dylan Bundy (6.56 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (6.10 ERA). Hammer the over. Lock of the century.
But once again wiseguys are buying low on bad news and zigging while novice bettors zag.
This total opened at 9. Currently 77% of bets are taking the over, but they account for only 52% of dollars. This indicates predominantly Average Joe support.
Meanwhile, the total has remained frozen at 9 despite the heavy public betting. In fact, the Under 9 is being juiced up to -125, which signals under liability and the next move likely down to 8.5.
We also tracked five separate steam and reverse line moves on the under, without a single conflicting over play (or buyback).
An added bonus for sharps sweating a low scoring game: The wind is blowing in from right field at 9 to 13 mph.
Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros
7:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Indians (moved from +115 to -104)
We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes Sunday Night Baseball showdown.
Cleveland has taken two of three in this series. With Carlos Carrasco’s ERA at 6.00 and Wade Miley’s at 3.58, casual bettors see a lay-up with the Astros at home sending a “better” pitcher to the mound in a game they “have to win.”
The former World Series champs are too good to lose three out of four at home, right? Not so fast, say the sharps.
This line opened at Houston -135. Despite receiving nearly 70% of bets, the line has tanked to Astros -106. Why would the books drop the ‘Stros price if the public is already pounding them?
As always, follow the money.
Cleveland is receiving only 32% of bets but 52% of dollars, indicating wiseguy wagers in its favor. We’ve also seen three big bet signals on the Tribe, with two coming at +105 and another at +102. This influx of respected money on the Indians flipped the line to essentially a coin flip (CLE -104, HOU -106).
James Hoye is also the home plate umpire, which favors road teams like Cleveland. Since 2005, home teams have lost -23.96 units with Hoye behind the plate.