MLB Sharp Report: Wiseguys Betting Brewers-Padres, 2 Other Tuesday Games
Milwaukee Brewers catcher Yasmani Grandal (10) celebrates with second baseman Mike Moustakas (11). Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games tonight, headlined by Red Sox-Twins (8:10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Rockies-Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET) and Brewers-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys started their week off in style yesterday, going 2-0 with their Monday plays (the third bet on the Nationals moneyline was rained out).
Fading trendy underdogs has been a big moneymaker for the sharps this season, as unpopular favorites receiving less than 50% of bets (like the Reds and Padres last night) have gone 97-63 (60.6%) with +15.44 units won and a 9.6% return on investment (ROI).
>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Boston Red Sox (40-34) @ Minnesota Twins (47-24)
8:10 p.m. ET | David Price (4-2, 3.52 ERA) vs. Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.04 ERA)
It’s a misconception that sharps (professional bettors) and squares (casual bettors) are always on opposite sides of a game. Sure, wiseguys love taking advantage of public bias and placing themselves on the side of the house (who always wins), but pros won’t lay off a game or fade a play simply because they happen to be on the same side of the public.
If Goodfellas have identified an edge, they’ll get down no questions asked regardless of betting percentages.
This battle between two AL heavyweights is a perfect example.
Minnesota opened as a short -114 home favorite and Boston a +105 underdog. Currently 60% of bets are jumping on the Sox, who stole the series opener last night, 2-0, and now have now won six games in a row.
However, despite modest public support, the Red Sox have moved all the way from +105 to -116. Simply put, 60% of bets is not lopsided enough to cause such a drastic move. Sharps had to be involved to push a line that far.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed wiseguys crush Boston at -114, triggering market-wide steam in its favor. We haven’t seen any conflicting moves (or buyback) on the Twins.
The Red Sox also match a profitable “spot” system. According to our Bet Labs database, road favorites in non-division games have gone 136-81 (62.7%) this season, winning +20.18 units with a 9.3% ROI.
Sharp angle: Red Sox (moved from +105 to -116)
Colorado Rockies (37-34) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (38-35)
9:40 p.m. ET | Antonio Senzatela (5-5, 5.48 ERA) vs. Merrill Kelly (7-6, 3.73 ERA)
The betting public doesn’t know which way to go with this NL West over/under. But wiseguys have taken a clear position.
This total opened at 9.5. Currently 52% of bets are taking the over. However, we’ve seen this total rise up to 10. In a vacuum a line shouldn’t move at all, aside from a juice adjustment of a cent or two, if the bets are split.
And even after rising a half-run, the Over 10 is being juiced up to -115 or -120 across the market, which means liability remains on the over and it may even go up to 10.5.
What caused the big over movement? Wiseguy action of course.
The over is receiving only 52% of bets but 69% of dollars, signaling heavy support from experienced professional bettors dropping big wagers. We’ve also tracked three separate steam and reverse line moves on the Over, with one coming at Over 9.5 and two more hitting the Over 10.
Two added bonuses for sharps sweating a high-scoring game:
- The Rockies’ bats are red hot, having combined for 92 runs in their four-game weekend series with the Padres, which set a 90+ year record.
- The roof is open at Chase Field tonight. Since 2005, the over has won 53.8% of the time (+30.29 units) with the roof open.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 9.5 to 10)
Milwaukee Brewers (40-32) @ San Diego Padres (36-37)
10:10 p.m. ET | Brandon Woodruff (8-1, 3.87 ERA) vs. Logan Allen (no record)
The Padres took the series opener last night, 2-0, handing under bettors a sweat-free victory. Average Joes see Christian Yelich and the stacked Brewers lineup facing a 22-year-old rookie making his major league debut and that’s all they need to know.
The Beermakers will light him up. Hammer the over, right?
The total opened at 8, which speaks volumes. The fact that the line is so low despite a rookie pitcher on the mound tells you that oddsmakers have this pegged as a lower-scoring game to begin with.
Currently 66% of bets are taking the over, but a whopping 78% of dollars are coming in on the under, evidence of a massive pros vs. Joes bet split.
Wiseguys have triggered four bet signals on the Under 8 and we haven’t seen any conflicting over moves. This influx of smart money has forced oddsmakers to drop the total down to 7.5.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8 to 7.5)