MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Indians-Mariners, 3 Other Tuesday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Indians-Mariners, 3 Other Tuesday Games article feature image
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Cleveland Indians center fielder Leonys Martin (2) celebrates with teammates. Credit: Peter G. Aiken/USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are getting down on four MLB games on Friday, headlined by Indians-Mariners (10:10 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Pirates-Tigers (6:40 p.m. ET), Orioles-Rays (7:10 p.m. ET) and Rockies-Padres (9:10 pm. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys got taken to the woodshed yesterday, going 0-4 with their Monday plays. There’s no way to sugarcoat it, but losing sucks. Ups and downs are part of the process. Stay the course and think long term. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

After analyzing Tuesday’s 15-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers

6:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (7.5)

This Interleague over/under is arguably the sharpest total of the night.

Joe Musgrove (0.00 ERA) and Matthew Boyd (2.60) have been nearly unhittable so far this season. So it’s no surprise that the public is hammering the under and expecting a 2-0 game, but not the sharps. Once again, they’re zigging while Average Joes zag.

This total opened at a low 7.5. Currently 70% of bets are taking the over, yet the total has remained frozen at 7.5. The fact that it hasn’t fallen to 7 is a sign that sportsbooks have liability on the over and don’t want to hand out an extra half-run to wiseguys sweating the contrarian over.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked five separate steam and reverse line moves on the over, without a single conflicting under more (or buyback).

An added bonus for over backers: Jim Wolf is calling balls and strikes at Comerica Park tonight. Since 2005, the under has lost -33.91 units when Wolf is behind the plate according to Bet Labs.

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (8)

Pros and Joes are sweating opposite sides of this AL East total.

The over/under opened at 8. Currently 60% of bets are taking the over, but 61% of dollars are taking the under — a clear indication that the big wagers are banking on a low-scoring game.

We also tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the under.

It doesn’t hurt that Tropicana Field is one of the best stadiums for unders. The dome provides ideal conditions for pitchers and fielders and the ball doesn’t travel well for hitters.

According to Bet Labs, the Under has gone 588-502 (53.9%) at the Trop since 2005, winning +43.15 units. If the total is 8 or higher, the under is even better: 376-316 (54.3%).

 

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres

9:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Rockies (moved from +134 to +100)

The Rockies might be the favorite wiseguy play of the night.

Colorado beat San Diego 5-2 last night. But the Rockies are still just 5-12 while the Padres are 11-7. Gambler’s Fallacy says the Pads are a better team, at home and have to bounce back and win tonight. Right?

This NL West showdown opened with San Diego listed as a -145 favorite. However, despite receiving 54% of bets the Padres have plummeted to -110.

Whenever you see a massive move like this, there’s a good chance the sharps are responsible. Colorado is receiving only 46% of bets but 69% of dollars. We’ve also seen wiseguys hammer COL at +124 and +109, triggering a pair of steam moves.

This combination of smart money is a clear indication that Goodfellas are backing Nolan Arenado and Company to steal another win at Petco Park.

Cleveland Indians @ Seattle Mariners

10:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Indians (moved from +105 to -115)

Cleveland beat Seattle 6-4 last night and sharps are going back to the well tonight.

This line opened with Seattle listed as a short -115 home favorite. Moneyline bets are split down the middle, but the line has completely flipped toward Cleveland (+105 to -115).

What caused Cleveland to move from a dog to a favorite? Follow the money.

The Tribe are receiving only 50% of bets but 67% of dollars. Meanwhile, we’ve tracked three big steam moves on CLE at -110, -111 and -115.

Since 2005, road favorites receiving moderate support (45% to 55% of bets) and big line movement in their favor (at least 20 cents) have gone 103-64 (61.7%) with a 10.5% ROI.

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