MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Yankees-Twins, 2 Other Wednesday Games
New York Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres (25) turns the double play against Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler (26). Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
- Professional bettors are getting down on three games Wednesday night, headlined by Yankees-Twins (8:10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Padres-Mets (7:10 p.m. ET) and Royals-Braves (7:20 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys went 1-2 with their Tuesday plays, cashing the Padres-Mets under but losing the White Sox and Cubs moneylines. The Cubs game was the killer.
Chicago trailed, 4-2, into the seventh, battled back to force extra innings but then lost on a walk-off homer by Pablo Sandoval in the 13th.
Overall, it was a profitable night for contrarian bettors as underdogs, unders and teams receiving less than 40% of bets all turned a profit.
#MLB Tuesday Recap
➡️ Dogs: 9-6, +7.81u
➡️ Road teams: 11-4, +10.06u
➡️ <40% bets: 7-3, +8.38u
➡️ Unders: 9-5-1, +3.54u pic.twitter.com/WUeq4oGNsC
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 24, 2019
>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
San Diego Padres (47-53) at New York Mets (46-54)
7:10 p.m. ET | Dinelson Lamet (0-2, 5.14 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (7-4, 4.29 ERA)
Wiseguys cashed their Padres-Mets under last night and they’re going back to the well tonight.
This over/under opened at 8. Sharps didn’t pounce on the under immediately. Instead, they waited for early public over betting (60% of bets) to push the total up to 8.5. Once the hook (the extra half-run) became available, wiseguys made their move.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked three steam moves and one reverse line move on the Under, all coming at Under 8.5.
The difference between 8 and 8.5 may not seem like much, but when betting baseball totals it makes a world of difference. The Under 8.5 is currently juiced up to -120, which means it’s likely to fall back down to 8.
The under is receiving only 40% of bets but a whopping 78% of dollars, further evidence that the big wagers are banking on a low-scoring game.
Ryan Blakney will be behind the plate tonight at Citi Field. Since 2005, the under has won at a 55% clip (+7.62 units).
The under also matches the highly profitable Bet Labs System “Bet Against the Public on Under Streak.”
Sharp angle: Under (8.5)
Kansas City Royals (38-64) at Atlanta Braves (60-42)
7:20 p.m. ET | Brad Keller (6-9, 4.18 ERA) vs. Julio Teheran (5-6, 3.61 ERA)
The Royals secured a 5-4 upset win in last night’s series opener, handing contrarian bettors (19% of bets, +217) and under backers (41% on Under 9.5) a pair of big wins.
Public bettors love betting overs. After all, it’s much more fun to sweat a fun, high-scoring game filled with hits and home runs as opposed to a boring 3-2 game. Add in the fact that Overs have had a historic season and Average Joes say “give me the over in a bounce-back spot tonight.”
But wiseguys aren’t falling victim to the Gambler’s Fallacy. They’re back on the under train.
This Interleague over/under opened at a high 10. Currently 60% of bets are taking the over, yet we’ve seen the total fall to 9.5. This is a classic case of sharp reverse line movement, with respected pro players getting down on the under, causing the total to fall in the opposite direction of the betting percentages.
We’ve noticed a pair of bet signals on the under, with sharps getting down hard on the Under 10 and the Under 9.5. The fact that wiseguys hit the under the second time despite losing a half-run of value speaks to their confidence level in a lower-scoring game.
We haven’t seen any conflicting over moves (or buyback).
This under also matches the same Bet Labs Betting Against the Public on an Under Streak System (+201.48 units won since 2005).
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 10 to 9.5)
New York Yankees (65-35) at Minnesota Twins (61-39)
8:10 p.m. ET | J.A. Happ (8-5, 4.86 ERA) vs. Jake Odorizzi (11-4, 3.18 ERA)
The Yankees and Twins have split the first two games of this AL heavyweight series. The public is having trouble picking a side in tonight’s rubber game.
On one hand, recreational bettors love backing a successful, popular big-name team like New York every day of the week. However, Average Joes also see value on a good team like Minnesota at home with its ace on the mound.
But wiseguys aren’t undecided. They’re taken a clear side.
This game opened at a true pick’em, with both sides listed at -110. Moneyline bets are split down the middle, with an ever-so-slight public lean to the Twins (53% of bets). However, we’ve seen this line move nearly 10 cents toward New York (-110 to -117).
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this movement was caused by smart money hitting the Bronx Bombers.
We’ve tracked only one smart money alert on this game, with wiseguys steaming the Yankees at -110.
Sharp angle: Yankees (moved from -110 to -117)