MLB Monday Weather: Strong Hitting Conditions for 2 Divisional Showdowns

MLB Monday Weather: Strong Hitting Conditions for 2 Divisional Showdowns article feature image
Credit:

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Francisco Lindor.

  • Using the Action Network's betting tools, we've analyzed how weather is impacting Mets-Phillies and Royals-Indians.

Mets (S. Matz) at Phillies (Z. Eflin)

7:05 p.m. ET

Weather Rating: 65

We shall start off with the thrilla in Phila, a game that could be darn interesting if I do say so myself. The Mets nearly beat the bag out of some poor reporter yesterday, while the Phillies have lost seven straight and nine of their past 10. Exciting times in the NL East!

The Mets will be tossing Steven Matz, who will shudder at the sight of tonight’s forecast, which calls for winds blowing out at 6 mph. He has a 1.83 HR/9 and has allowed a dong on just about one-fifth of his fly balls.

Philly will counter with Zach Eflin. His 2.83 ERA is fine and dandy, but his FIP and xFIP are both higher than his numbers last year when he posted a 4.36 ERA.

Citizens Bank Park is an extremist when it comes to wind trends, as it ranks towards the top of the list for both wind-out overs and wind-in unders. As for the overs, they’ve hit at a 60.8% rate over 200+ games historically and a slightly higher rate over the past few seasons per Bet Labs.

The over/under for this game did not open until this morning at 9.5.

Royals (B. Keller) at Indians (A. Plutko)

7:10 p.m. ET

Weather Rating: 76

This is one of just eight games we’ve tracked at Progressive Field with a Weather Rating of 75+ dating back to 2014. In the previous seven, the over has gone 6-0-1 — not bad.

Winds will be blowing out to right/right-center at 7-10 mph and temps will be in mid-upper 70s, but there’s also a good chance of rain.

These optimal conditions likely won’t impact Royals starter Brad Keller all that much, as he induces a high number of ground balls and has one of the lowest HR/9 numbers in the league. Adam Plutko of the Indians may be susceptible, though, as he’s allowed a dinger about once every three innings this year.

Similar to a game last week in which the wind was blowing in and the total fell a run, I’ll be laying off this over/under. If I hadn’t been photographing a caravan of stoats yesterday evening, I could have taken over 9. Instead, I woke up this morning to find the total up a full run at 10. As a general rule of thumb, I don’t take MLB totals that have already moved a run, unless I’m buying back the other side.