Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, May 17.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Sunday, May 17
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- Chandler Simpson 1+ Stolen Bases
- Phillies vs Pirates NRFI
- Phillies vs Pirates F5 Under
- Yankees vs Mets NRFI
- Ryan Weathers Over Strikeouts
- Jose Ramirez 2+ Total Bases
- Jose Ramirez 1+ Home Runs
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Diamondbacks F5 ML
Marlins vs Rays Picks
Eury Perez hasn’t been all that consistent this season. He’s posted a 4.94 ERA behind 24 walks, the seventh-highest mark among all starting pitchers.
Given Eury’s significant command issues, I wouldn’t be surprised if one of Tampa’s batters finds their way on base and then finds success on the basepaths.
Chandler Simpson is one of the fastest players to grace this sport, and he’s already swiped 14 bags. Whether he records a hit or draws a walk, he should have at least one prime opportunity to swipe another on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Miami sent defense-first Augustin Ramriez down to Triple-A, while keeping offense-first catcher Liam Hicks in the lineup. Hicks struggles to throw out runners, boasting a 10% caught-stealing success rate, one of the worst marks in the league.
Pick: Chandler Simpson 1+ Stolen Bases
Phillies vs Pirates Picks
This should be a pitcher’s duel.
Paul Skenes has been brilliant, posting a 1.98 ERA across nine outings. Take away that disastrous and unfortunate Opening Day start, and the 23-year-old has posted a 1.09 ERA and .53 WHIP across 49 innings of work.
Wheeler looks good, too, posting a 2.55 ERA and 0.93 WHIP to start the season.
Given the elite pitching matchup, it’s probably no surprise I’m banking on a lower-scoring ballgame.
Pick: NRFI | F5 Under
Yankees vs Mets Picks
The Subway Series is one of the league’s best annual rivalry-weekend matchups. And the series finale features an elite pitching matchup between Freddy Peralta and Ryan Weathers.
The Mets nabbing Peralta was a big-boy move, but the Yankees grabbing Weathers was one of the best under-the-radar moves of the past offseason.
Regardless, both have been elite to start the season, and I expect runs to come at a premium in this matchup.
Of importance, the Yankee bats are beginning to cool off, and they tend to hit worse on the road, posting a league-best 142 wRC+ at Yankee Stadium but the 17th-best 92 wRC+ away from the Bronx.
Meanwhile, the Mets haven’t hit all season, and they’re still banged up in the lineup (Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor).
Thus, this appears to be another great NRFI opportunity.
I’ll also take a shot with Weathers’ strikeout prop, as he’s running a near-career-high 12% swinging-strike rate.
Pick: NRFI | Ryan Weathers Over Strikeouts
Reds vs Guardians Picks
Brady Singer has been brutal. He’s running a 5.79 ERA and 1.67 WHIP across his first five outings.
Given his stint in Kansas City, he’s faced this Guardians lineup plenty of times. He has a real history with Jose Ramirez.
In 29 career head-to-head at-bats, Ramirez has bashed 12 hits, including three homers.
Ramirez hasn’t been elite to start the season, but he should round into form eventually. His expected wOBA (.372) is nearly 50 points higher than his actual (.325), and he’s been unlucky with BABIP variance (.230).
This is a great spot for J-Ram to right the ship against a pitcher he loves facing.
Pick: Jose Ramirez 2+ Total Bases | Jose Ramirez 1+ Home Runs
Cubs vs White Sox Picks
I love rivalry weekend. I appreciate that the Cubs and White Sox are duking it out for Chicago supremacy.
Erick Fedde started out hot, but he’s since cooled off, allowing six earned runs over his past two outings, spread out across 12 hits and five homers in less than 10 frames.
Despite relying heavily on a sinker and slider, Fedde allows a ton of hard contact, especially against left-handed hitters.
Thus, I plan to fade Fedde against a lefty.
Pete Crow-Armstrong started slow, but he’s starting to round into form. And, historically, this is a good matchup for him — across five head-to-head plate appearances, Crow-Armstrong has two hits against Fedde.
PCA has a unique combination of speed and power — he bashed 31 homers and swiped 35 bags last season. And while he’s often prone to strikeouts, Fedde is not exactly a strikeout pitcher, giving Crow-Armstrong the edge in this head-to-head matchup.
Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Picks
Michael Soroka has reignited his career. He’s posted a 3.53 ERA over his first eight starts. He’s dealt with several injuries throughout his career, so maybe he’s finally just healthy.
Meanwhile, Michael Lorenzen is trending in the opposite direction. He’s posted a 6.55 ERA and 1.84 WHIP thus far this season.
The Snakes will have a massive starting pitching advantage on Sunday, and they’re (unsurprisingly) better in the batter’s box.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 ML
Ryan Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, May 17
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Chandler Simpson 1+ Stolen Bases
- Phillies vs Pirates NRFI
- Phillies vs Pirates F5 Under
- Yankees vs Mets NRFI
- Ryan Weathers Over Strikeouts
- Jose Ramirez 2+ Total Bases
- Jose Ramirez 1+ Home Runs
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Diamondbacks F5 ML
