MLB Friday Weather Forecast: Winds Impacting Games in New York, Boston

MLB Friday Weather Forecast: Winds Impacting Games in New York, Boston article feature image
Credit:

Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Fenway Park.

  • Windy conditions are impacting both the Rays-Yankees and Astros-Red Sox games tonight.
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we've identified how these conditions could impact the over/unders.

Two mightily important series are taking place in the northeast this weekend, with the Yankees hosting the AL East-leading Rays and the Red Sox hosting the MLB-best Astros.

With both the Yankees and Red Sox closing in on the Rays, there’s a possibility that the standings move around quite a bit. The Astros, already up eight games in the standings over the Mariners, don’t have much at stake, but would certainly like revenge over the team that ousted them in the playoffs last year.

Rays at Yankees

The Yankees have a chance to take over the top of the AL East standings with a series win against the Rays this weekend. While the Rays are known for their run prevention (3.00 runs allowed per game, lowest in the majors), Mother Nature will be putting them to the test in this small ballpark.

Ryne Stanek will be the opener for the Rays, though Yonny Chirinos is expected to follow him and pitch a handful of innings. Stanek, Chirinos and C.C. Sabathia will all have to deal with winds blowing out in a ballpark that has ranked in the top-10 in home run park factors in every year of its existence, including several years atop the throne.

Historically, Yankee Stadium has been one of the better ballparks in which to take the over when winds are blowing out, posting a 78-61-13 (56.1%) record per Bet Labs.

The wind, paired with temps in the low 70s, make for a Weather Rating of 61 — quite high for Yankee Stadium. This is the 36th night game in the Bronx since 2014 with a Weather Rating of 60 or higher (highest ever was 80). It’s also the highest rating at Yankee Stadium of the young 2019 season regardless of time of day.

Per FantasyLabs Trends Tool, pitchers have posted a Plus/Minus of -0.18 at Yankee Stadium with a Weather Rating of 60 or higher, while hitters, to my surprise, have also underperformed expectations at 0.14.

Within an hour of opening this morning, the total went from 8.5 to 9.5. More than 80% of the early bets and dollars are on the over and we also tracked a steam move on over 9 at about 10:15 a.m. ET.

Astros at Red Sox

Oh baby, we have ourselves a ALCS rematch in Boston. The Red Sox continue to try and grind back to their 2018 winning ways, while the Astros are doing a little Red Sox impression of their own, as they are on pace for 107 wins.

Fenway Park will sport nearly identical conditions as Yankee Stadium, with winds blowing out at 8 mph and temps in the mid-60s. That’s certainly not what the Red Sox wanted to see considering Houston has four hitters with 10+ dongs on the year.

Games at Fenway with wind blowing out have gone over 55.1% of the time historically.

Much like Yankee Stadium, this is also the best hitting weather this season at Fenway with a Weather Rating of 56. This is the 47th night game at Fenway since 2014 with a Weather Rating of 55 or higher (highest ever was 78).

The DFS splits are far more exaggerated at Fenway than they are at Yankee Stadium. In all games at Fenway with a Weather Rating of 55+, pitchers have posted a Plus/Minus of -1.93, while hitters are up +0.62.

With Gerrit Cole taking on Rick Porcello, this total hasn’t seen as much one-sided betting action as the Rays-Yankees game. Though the over is getting two thirds of bets, the total has remained at 9.5 since opening.