MLB Player Props Odds & Picks: Monday’s 2 Bets for Alek Manoah, Dylan Bundy
Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Alek Manoah
- A holiday Monday is for betting on baseball, and there's plenty of value in the props market.
- Our analyst is targeting two pitchers whose strikeout totals are set too low.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the picks, including analysis on Alek Manoah and Dylan Bundy.
Happy Fourth of July!
Here are two pitcher props to add extra value to your holiday card today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Alek Manoah over 5.5 Strikeouts (-165)
|Blue Jays @ Athletics|
|First Pitch||9:07 p.m. ET|
The young Alek Manoah is putting it all together in his second year, pitching to a 2.09 ERA through 15 starts. He’s due for some slight regression, but I’m still expecting the Jays to win 60% of his starts.
Manoah’s strikeouts are actually down, as he’s only punching out about eight batters per nine compared to the 10-plus he put up last season. He’s gotten over this line in just 8 of 15 starts so far.
However, he’s managed over this line in his last two starts and I think this number is too low. Our Action Labs Player Props projections mark Manoah for 7.2 Ks, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections are at 6.00 on the dot.
The A’s pair the second-lowest wRC+ (73) with the sixth-highest strikeout rate (24%) against RHPs this season. Manoah could be in for a masterclass considering his mediocre opponent.
Besides, Manoah posted a 38.5% whiff rate in one start against Oakland this season, picking up six strikeouts over just 84 pitches.
I’ll take him to go over again today.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-165)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Dylan Bundy over 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
|Twins @ White Sox|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
It’s tough to back Dylan Bundy, whose strikeouts are way down year-over-year. He’s only striking out about 6.5 batters per nine innings, cracking 3.5 Ks in just five of 13 starts this season.
But, like Manoah, this line is too low. Especially considering we’re getting 3.5 Ks at plus-money. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects him for a whopping 5.2 Ks today, giving us a 28% edge over the line DraftKings is offering.
Meanwhile, FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark Bundy for 4.24 Ks today. And we’re still getting plus-money on this prop.
ZiPS projections actually have Bundy finishing the year with over 8.25 K/9, meaning he could start to rip off strikeouts in the back half of the season. It’s an excellent time to buy low on Bundy.
The White Sox aren’t all that scary against RHPs, posting just the 23rd-best wRC+ (80) this season. Bundy managed four strikeouts on less than 80 pitches against the White Sox in April, so he could easily pass this number with a higher pitch count.
And, again, we get to bet this prop at plus money.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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