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Nationals vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Schwarber and Philadelphia’s Hitters Should Thrive at Home (Friday, August 5)

Nationals vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Schwarber and Philadelphia’s Hitters Should Thrive at Home (Friday, August 5) article feature image
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Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Schwarber

  • The Phillies are heavy home favorites on Friday night against the slumping Nationals.
  • The Nats will send Josiah Gray to the mound, but the Phillies have the starting pitching edge with Kyle Gibson on the bump.
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds

Nationals Odds +165
Phillies Odds -195
Over/Under 9
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV Apple TV+
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Phillies beat the Nationals Thursday night in a rain-shortened game that went five innings. The Phillies are now 8-2 over their last 10 games as they’re tied for the last wild card spot in the National League entering play Friday. The Nationals, of course, have the worst record in all of baseball at 36-71. The only playoffs Washington will see this year will be on television after trading one of the best players in the game at the trade deadline in outfielder Juan Soto.

Will the Phillies keep up their recent winning ways as they make a playoff push, or will the Nationals pull off the upset?

Can Nationals Hitters Step Up Against Gibson?

The Nationals will face Phillies starting pitcher Kyle Gibson, who has a 4.60 ERA and 4.68 xFIP this year. He’s been solid over his last four starts as he completed at least six innings while allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of those starts. His lone poor start in his last four came against the Cubs when he failed to complete six innings and allowed six earned runs.

Washington is 24th in all of baseball averaging 3.96 runs per game on the road this season. Those numbers of course include Soto and Josh Bell being in the lineup, but they’re both on the Padres now. Gibson has allowed a .162 ISO to right-handed batters this season, but Luke Voit is the only hitter in the Nationals’ projected lineup with an ISO above .200 against right-handed pitching this season.

Phillies Righties Should Hammer Gray

The Phillies seemed destined to pile up runs Thursday night before the rain came, and they are 11th in all of baseball with an average of 4.58 runs per game at home this season. The Phillies bats will go up against Josiah Gray, who has a 4.59 ERA and 4.94 xFIP this year.

Gray has allowed a ridiculous .319 ISO to left-handed batters this year, and Kyle Schwarber and Darick Hall each have ISOs above .270 against right-handed pitching this season. I’d be surprised if neither of them hit a home run against Gray in this game. Rhys Hoskins, a right-handed batter, hit a homer Thursday night and has a .212 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. The Phillies seem to have the edge at the plate and on the mound in this one.

Nationals-Phillies Pick

Washington has the worst record in the league, and Philadelphia is at home having won eight of its last 10 games. The Phillies are also 7-2 against Washington head-to-head this year and have a positive Run Differential compared to the Nationals’ -173 run differential.

I’ll ride with the Phillies, but with the moneyline juiced up to -195, there’s better value on the spread at -1.5 (-104) on FanDuel.

Pick: Phillies Runline -1.5 (-104)

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