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MLB Props Friday: Minion’s Favorite Total Bases Picks for Braves vs Reds, Royals vs Rangers

MLB Props Friday: Minion’s Favorite Total Bases Picks for Braves vs Reds, Royals vs Rangers article feature image
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Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images. Pictured: Bobby Witt Jr.

From here on out, I will be running my ‘Total Base of the Day’ segment every Friday and will continue selecting my two favorite players on the baseball slate to exceed their respective 1.5 total base marks on that night.

Below, I will highlight two players whom I believe have very favorable matchups ahead of Friday night’s slate of games.

MLB Props Friday: Minion's Favorite Total Base Props

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Ozzie Albies

at Reds, 6:40 PM ET

For my first ‘Total Base of the Day’ selection, I will target Braves’ second baseman Ozzie Albies to exceed his 1.5 TB mark on Friday night as Atlanta gets ready to square off with the Reds at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

Reds’ veteran right-hander Chris Paddack will take the mound on Friday night and will surely be looking to bounce back from what has been a dreadful 2026 campaign thus far.

Across Paddack’s first eight starts of the season, the Reds’ 30-year-old righty has recorded a horrific 6.86 ERA to go along with a 1.67 WHIP and is most definitely in a position to potentially lose his spot in the rotation with Nick Lodolo having returned from the IL.

Paddack was a highly touted pitching prospect when he arrived in the Big Leagues with the Padres in 2019 and put together a phenomenal rookie year, finishing the season with an impressive 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

Since his rookie year, the Reds’ righty has struggled mightily on the bump largely due to several injuries over the course of his career that resulted in Cincinnati's starter having to undergo many surgeries to repair the damage to his shoulder.

Paddack has had every injury over the sun over the last seven seasons, with the right-hander having had Tommy John surgery twice, suffered a right elbow UCL sprain, a right forearm sprain, amongst several others.

The former-Padre has yet to finish a single season with an ERA below 4.00 since his 2019 debut, and Paddack has been a part of 4 different clubs over the last 18 months.

Though Paddack appears to have finally had some stability with no current injury concern, he has been in atrocious form in 2026.

On the other hand, Braves’ switch-hitting slugger Ozzie Albies is having a great 2026 campaign, having smashed eight homers thus far and ranking inside the top-10 in all of baseball with a .760 OPS.

Albies and Paddack have previously faced one another 11-times across several seasons, with the Braves’ 2B having recorded four hits off the veteran right-hander.

In 2025, Albies was two-for-three against Paddack, and they have actually already met twice this season, with Albies having smashed a homer off him in April. He is batting .364 AVG versus Cincinnati's righty and is slashing a 1.000 OPS.

Given Paddack’s horrific form and the Braves’ 2B having already bested Paddack across several previous plate appearances, I love him to exceed his 1.5 Total Base mark on Friday night in an extremely favorable matchup against a spiraling Reds’ starter.

Pick: Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105, FanDuel)

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Bobby Witt Jr.

at Rangers, 8:05 PM ET

For my second ‘Total Base of the Day’ selection ahead of Friday night’s baseball slate, I will be looking to target Royals’ superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. as the Royals head to Arlington for a three-game set versus the Rangers.

Lefty Mackenzie Gore will take the mound for the Rangers on Friday night and will surely be looking to build upon what has been a stellar last two starts.

Though Gore has recorded a subpar 4.42 ERA on the mound thus far, he has two quality starts in his last three appearances on the bump and has a chance to find some consistency on the mound on Friday night in the comfort of his own ballpark at Globe Life Field.

It has been a very up-and-down 2026 campaign for the Rangers’ left-hander, with him having dazzled in several starts, boasting tremendous punch-out prowess, while also having shown sizable susceptibility to extreme hard-hit rates and damage against opposing hitters, particularly when connecting on Gore’s high-velocity four-seam fastball.

Like Gore, Kansas City’s 25-year-old franchise talent has also struggled to find consistency across the first 45 games of the 2026 season, with Witt having posted far inferior metrics at the plate compared to his offensive production over the last few seasons.

In 2024, Witt became the first player to win an MLB batting title since George Brett did so in 1990, with the Royals’ switch-hitter having finished the season with an exceptional .332 batting average.

Also in 2024, Witt smashed 32 homers and drove in 109 runs at just 23-years-old. It was more of the same for the Royals’ star last season, posting 23 homers, 88 RBIs, and having a slugging percentage over .500.

While Witt began this season with a massive slump at the plate, the Royals’ SS has recorded a hit in 24 of Kansas City’s 27 games in the month of May.

While he is 0-for-3 in his three previous plate appearances versus the Rangers’ lefty, I still think this is a prime spot for Witt to thrive on Friday night, especially considering his versatility batting on both sides of the plate.

He boasts elite contact rates at the plate, having posted a .307 AVG across his last three seasons in the Majors, and owns a career slugging percentage upwards of .500 to go along with an .843 OPS.

Witt’s efficiency at the plate, combined with his exceptional speed on the base paths, has made him one of the best players on the planet, with a legit case as the best hitter in baseball.

Gore’s pitching arsenal primarily homes in on his four-seam fastball, which he throws at an extremely high clip with an average velocity of right around 97 MPH.

In addition to his premier high-velocity fastball, the Rangers’ left-hander has a decent, solid off-speed arsenal as well, featuring a sharp curveball and slider. That said, Gore has been known to have command issues, especially when falling behind in the count.

When unable to record punch-outs, Gore has a very tough time retiring opposing hitters, especially those boasting elite efficiency metrics at the plate, like Witt.

The Royals’ star consistently generates impressively high hard-hit rates, largely exceeding 50%, and has especially dominated left-handed pitchers, given his ability to drive pitches up in the zone and tremendous discipline inside the box, rarely chasing breaking balls.

Given Witt’s low strikeout rate, I think Gore will have a very difficult time matching up with a hitter of his caliber who destroys four-seam fastballs right where Gore prefers placing them in the zone.

I think Witt is a great candidate to exceed his 1.5 Total Base mark on Friday night in Arlington with scorching form at the plate, and I expect Gore’s consistency issues on the mound to continue.

Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125, FanDuel)

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About the Author

Ryan graduated from Providence College in 2016 with Bachelor Degrees in Business Economics & Mathematics. It was at Providence where Ryan really first found his passion for sports betting. For a lifelong sports fan with a knack for statistical analysis, he was instantly drawn to the fundamentals of the industry, specifically how sports betting markets functioned and fluctuated. In what primarily started as a recreational hobby, Ryan began studying the ins-and-outs of sports betting markets on a daily basis. He took to Twitter (now X), where he amassed a following for writing a sports betting blog that provided statistical analysis behind his wagers. In spite of seeking employment opportunities elsewhere post graduation, Ryan continued to follow his passion for the statistical analysis of sports betting wagers, eventually deciding to pursue a career in the sports betting industry.

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