The Washington Nationals host the San Diego Padres on May 29, 2026. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Padres are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are -102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Nationals Prediction
- Padres vs Nationals Pick: Nationals ML (-102)
My Padres vs Nationals best bet is on Washington to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Nationals Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 9 -110o / -110u | -116 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 9 -110o / -110u | -102 |
- Padres vs Nationals moneyline: Padres -116, Nationals -102
- Padres vs Nationals over/under: 9 (-110o / -110u)
- Padres vs Nationals spread: Padres -1.5 (+142), Nationals +1.5 (-172)
Padres vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
| RHP Lucas Giolito (SD) | Stat | RHP Paxton Schultz (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.70 / 3.91 | ERA / xERA | 5.30 / 4.22 |
| 4.77 / 6.31 | FIP / xFIP | 3.17 / 3.80 |
| -7.3 | K-BB% | 18.8 |
| 29.6 | GB% | 34.5 |
| .185 | BABIP | .357 |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 101 | Location+ | 107 |
Padres vs Nationals MLB Betting Preview, Betting Analysis
Lucas Giolito is not Lucas Giolito anymore. His average velocity across all pitches is down nearly three MPH relative to the last two seasons. He is down nearly four MPH from his career-high velocities in 2019-2020.
Despite these velocity issues, Giolito has only allowed three runs in 10 innings this season. He has succeeded in his first two starts because of luck. Giolito has not allowed a home run yet, but is inducing a career-low 29.6% groundball rate.
This version of Giolito, unless a significant jump occurs within a week, is batting practice for a Nationals offense that ranks 11th in wRC+ vs RHP. They also have the second-most HR against them this season.
Furthermore, the Padres will be facing multiple LHP today. San Diego ranks second-worst vs LHP this season, only ahead of division opponent Colorado.
The Padres' offense is dealing with a myriad of issues, most notably the homer-less streak from Fernando Tatis Jr. this season. He may break this cold stretch against the Nationals this weekend, but it is unlikely to come against today's main pitchers, Paxton Schultz or Andrew Alvarez.
Schultz boasts a gaudy 5.30 ERA, but his peripherals are solid across the board. Bulk pitcher Andrew Alvarez is more impressive. He has a 2.84 ERA, with an xFIP and SIERA both below 3.00. His 3.99 xERA is high, but overall, this is no scrub.
The Nationals' bullpen pales in comparison to the Padres', but they are at least fresh for this matchup. San Diego will likely have to rely on their bullpen arms early and often. Ideally, they will not be in a position to call upon their higher-leverage arms.
Pick: Nationals ML (-102, FanDuel)
