MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction for Nationals vs. Phillies: Hot to Bet NL East Matchup (July 27)
Will Newton/Getty Images. Pictured: Juan Soto.
- After a thrilling comeback win on Monday, the Phillies look to continue their NL East chase against the Nationals.
- Washington has lost five straight and is firmly outside of the playoff race, while Philadelphia is just 3 1/2 back of the first-place Mets.
- Matthew Trebby breaks down the betting value in the matchup, delivering his top pick for the game below.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds
|Time||Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings|
After a thrilling series opener that saw the Nationals’ terrible bullpen rear its ugly head, the Phillies go for a second straight win over their National League East rival on Tuesday night.
Philadelphia’s comeback win, which was capped by a three-run, walk-off home run by Andrew McCutchen puts it 3.5 games back of the first-place Mets while Washington fades to 8.5 behind. Another couple wins could make the Phillies more aggressive to chase New York at the deadline.
Let’s break down this matchup to see where there’s betting value on Tuesday night.
The Nationals are likely to be sellers over the next few days, but their lineup is unlikely to change much. There are rumblings about Trea Turner being available for the right price, which no doubt would be an exorbitant one.
Washington has lost five straight to the Marlins, Orioles (a three-game sweep) and Phillies, scoring 15 runs in the process, nine of which have come in the last two games.
Obviously, losing Kyle Schwarber in the midst of a breakout season was a tough blow. He was on fire at the plate and providing enough power to keep Washington relevant until Juan Soto’s power showed up, which it has since the All-Star break.
Since the Midsummer Classic, Soto entered Monday’s game with a 1.524 OPS to go with six home runs, 13 RBIs and nine walks in nine games. His first half was solid, but the pop was missing and has now been found.
Turner has been fantastic again this season, but that’s it for standout bats in the Nats’ lineup. Josh Bell and Ryan Zimmerman have been slightly above average while platooning at first base, and the same could be said for Yan Gomes behind the plate.
Good news for Washington: It has the highest OPS in MLB this season against left-handed pitching. The Nats get to face a pretty below-average southpaw on Tuesday.
Erick Fedde started the season pretty well, registering a 3.33 ERA through his first 10 starts. He then allowed 20 runs in 14 2/3 innings (12.27 ERA) over his next four, before bouncing back his last time out with six scoreless against the Marlins.
Fedde, who enters with a 4.88 ERA and 4.37 xFIP, has faced the Phillies twice this season and has allowed eight runs over nine innings.
The Phillies’ lineup ranked 15th in MLB entering this series, and that’s mostly because of a lack of standout performers.
Bryce Harper has been very good, with a .287/.388/.516 slash line that the Phillies would happily take every year of his 13-year deal. J.T. Realmuto has been good, for a catcher, with an .805 OPS, and Andrew McCutchen has been solid (.800).
Rhys Hoskins needs to take a step forward, though, for the Phils. His .799 OPS entering the series needs to be higher and is so low because he was hitting just .231. Hoskins leads the club in home runs and RBIs mostly because he hasn’t been hurt this season and hits behind all the aforementioned hitters.
Hoskins did show a sign of life in the opener on Monday with a three-run home run in the sixth inning.
Where the Phillies have struggled most, though, is on the mound, something evident based on the fact that Moore is starting for a playoff hopeful in late July.
The Phillies’ rotation ranks 17th in the majors in ERA. Zack Wheeler has been stellar, while Aaron Nola has taken a significant step backward.
Matt Moore will be making his sixth start as what appears to be a full-time member of Philadelphia’s rotation. He’s averaging almost 4 2/3 innings per start and has a 4.56 ERA during that stretch. Six innings in his last start was the deepest he’s pitched into a game this season.
The lack of length in Moore’s starts is another piece of bad news, because the Phillies’ bullpen has been disastrous. Philly ranks 23rd this season in bullpen ERA at 4.73. It’s not getting any better with a 5.10 mark in relief over the past 30 days before this series started.
I don’t trust either starting pitcher, and for as bad as the Phillies’ bullpen has been over the past 30 days, Washington’s has been worse. In that span, the Nats rank dead last in MLB in bullpen ERA, which wasn’t helped by Brad Hand blowing the series opener.
The over is high for this game, but we have a pair of teams facing bad starting pitchers and worse relief pitching. We saw the bullpens come into play on Monday night in the series opener, and the over cashed. Tuesday night has worse starting pitching and those same awful relief corps.
Live a little and bet the over, people … as long as it’s 10 or lower.
Pick: Over 9.5 (play to 10)