The Arizona Diamondbacks host the New York Mets on May 9, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Mets are favored by -115 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are -105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Mets vs Diamondbacks Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-120, BetMGM) | Play to -130
My Mets vs Diamondbacks best bet is on Merrill Kelly to stay under his Outs prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -118o / -102u | -115 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9 -118o / -102u | -105 |
- Mets vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Mets -115, Diamondbacks -105
- Mets vs Diamondbacks over/under: 9 (-118o / -102u)
- Mets vs Diamondbacks spread: Mets -1.5 (+145), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-175)
Mets vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) | Stat | RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 1-3 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.6 |
| 1.69/3.79 | ERA / xERA | 9.95/11.73 |
| 3.65/3.83 | FIP / xFIP | 8.13/5.97 |
| 10.1% | K-BB% | -1.0% |
| 58.2% | GB% | 36.8% |
| .210 | BABIP | .286 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 102 | Location+ | 97 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Bats Bound to Come Around
Don't look now, but the Mets have quietly won five of their last seven, including a clutch extra-innings victory in last night's series opener. Their recent surge has been spurred by the men on the mound, and their starter tonight looks to have found his best form.
Clay Holmes has gotten off to a tremendous start in his second full season in the starting rotation. To this point, he holds a 1.69 ERA and does not show many signs of regression as he's generated a ton of soft contact.
The key to Holmes' success has been his command, which has been far better, with his walk rate well below league average. With his command in check, it has allowed his sinker and sweeper to be more effective outside the zone, and cause opposing batters to swing at pitches he executes.
However, if the Mets are going to stay hot, the bats are going to have to come around, and their rank of ninth in hard-hit rate is a green flag for the positive regression coming.
The Mets have one of the widest gaps between their expected start and actual stats, as their team xBA is 16 points higher and their team xSLG is 113 points higher.
It's clear they are due for more success at the dish, and primed to give Holmes some run support tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Snakes Can't Catch a Break
Arizona is a team with plenty of talent that has a track record of consistency. However, recently, Arizona has been consistently cold at the dish and on the mound.
The Diamondbacks are in the bottom third of the league in hard-hit and barrel rate. They have also not shown much discipline, sitting well below average in walk rate and chase rate.
Those are two qualities that will allow Clay Holmes to feast if his command is sharp. Although Arizona has plenty of command concerns about its own starter, Merrill Kelly.
Kelly has not looked himself at all this season as he enters with a 7.98 ERA and a strikeout minus walk rate of -4.2. That unsightly ratio tells the story of his command issues through four starts.
Mistakes both in and out of the zone have cost him dearly, and with the Mets lineup poised to do damage, he's likely in for another rough outing.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Pick, Betting Analysis
This league moves fast, and this matchup is a testament to that, as you can honestly say that these two teams are trending in opposite directions. The Mets are looking up in all aspects, whereas the Diamondbacks are spiraling.
While the market has shown it's willing to buy-low on Arizona, Merrill Kelly is still worth fading with confidence tonight. The Mets lineup is still plenty dangerous, and Kelly has not shown he can record outs efficiently, only averaging 14.7 per start.
This is not a bounce-back spot for him, which makes his under outs prop a strong angle tonight.
Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-120, BetMGM) | Play to -130
